| TRUMP: HIT THE NUCLEAR FIRST AND WORRY ABOUT THE REST LATER: While the top U.S. commander for the Middle East is in Tel Aviv consulting with Israel about U.S. support for its promised retaliation against Iran for last week's unprecedented ballistic missile attack, the former top commander is cautioning against a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, at least for now. Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, head of the U.S. Central Command, arrived in Israel over the weekend, as the U.S. has been in close contact as Israel finalizes plans for a retaliatory strike. In a phone call yesterday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant the U.S. "maintains significant capability in the region to defend U.S. personnel and facilities, provide further support for Israel's self-defense," according to a Pentagon readout. Meanwhile, some Republicans, including their standard bearer, former President Donald Trump, are advocating that Israel hit Iran's nuclear facilities, something President Joe Biden said the U.S. does not support. "They asked him, 'What do you think about Iran? Would you hit Iran?' And he goes, 'As long as they don't hit the nuclear stuff,'" Trump said at a rally in Fayetteville, North Carolina, on Friday. "I think he's got that one wrong. Isn't that what you're supposed to hit? I mean, it's the biggest risk we have, nuclear weapons," Trump said. "When they asked him that question, the answer should have been, hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later." "Well, well, Donald Trump following my advice this time: Endorsing Israel taking out Iran's nuclear-weapons program," Trump's former national security adviser, and frequent critic, John Bolton, posted on X in response. MCKENZIE: 'A VERY DIFFICULT TARGET TO TAKE OUT': Retired Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, Kurilla's immediate predecessor, has intimate knowledge of what it would take to eliminate Iran's nuclear infrastructure and says even with U.S. help, it would be "a difficult target." "I held the plans for that when I was the Central Command commander. I'm very familiar with it," McKenzie said Sunday on CBS's Face the Nation. "We have special capabilities that allow us to get at it. The Israelis do not have all of those capabilities. They can certainly hurt this target if they choose to strike it. But again, because of its size, complexity, and scope and how it's expanded over the last ten years, it's a very difficult target to take out." McKenzie said his advice would be to go after less "resource incentive" targets and save the nuclear option in the event Israel gets into an "escalatory ladder" with Iran. "There are a lot of other alternatives to that target that perhaps you could go after first, "McKenzie said. 'I think oil infrastructure is certainly a possibility. And the oil infrastructure can be very broad. You can look at refineries. You can look at storage facilities. You can look at locations where the oil is loaded onto ships. So, within the oil target, it's not monolithic. You can be escalatory or less escalatory." "You should never take a potential target off the menu. You want your adversary to have to plan to defend everything," he said. "I would argue, just from a purely military point of view, there are perhaps targets are more productive to hit in an initial response." That said, McKenzie notes Israel holds all the cards. "Iran is the country that's in a corner. Their strike against Israel of several nights ago was not particularly successful. Their principal ally in the region, Hezbollah, has been decapitated, and its own offensive capability is greatly limited. Hezbollah's is greatly limited. So, Iran's on their back heel." "But the Israelis are certainly going to hit back," he said. "And I predict it will be larger than the very restrained, very modulated response that we saw in April after the first large Iranian attack on Israel." LETTER FROM THE EDITOR: JOE, HERE'S THE NUKE IRAN DEAL MACRON'S ARMS EMBARGO CALL INFURIATES NETANYAHU: On Saturday, in an interview with France Inter public radio, French President Emmanuel Macron urged countries to stop providing weapons to Israel for its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. "I think that today, the priority is that we return to a political solution, that we stop delivering weapons to fight in Gaza," Macron said in the interview, noting France is not sending any arms to Israel. Macron and Netanyahu spoke by phone Sunday, but according to the French government, Macron did not back down. "Shame on them," Netanyahu said in an angry speech over the weekend. "We are fighting against Iran, which last week fired over 200 ballistic missiles directly at Israel and which stands behind this seven-front war against Israel. As Israel fights the forces of barbarism led by Iran, all civilized countries should be standing firmly by Israel's side." "Yet President Macron and other Western leaders are now calling for arms embargoes against Israel," Netanyahu said. "Is Iran imposing an arms embargo on Hezbollah, on the Houthis, on Hamas, and on its other proxies? Of course not. This axis of terror stands together. But countries who supposedly oppose this terror axis call for an arms embargo on Israel. What a disgrace." HARRIS PIVOTS ON QUESTIONS ABOUT IF NETANYAHU IS LISTENING TO THE US: 60 MINUTES CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE HAPPENING TODAY: HURRICANE WATCH: As Hurricane Milton increased to a Category 2 storm overnight, and residents of Florida's west coast braced for a very cruel one-two punch from another destructive storm surge, the Biden administration and its Republican critics are engaged in a heated war of words over the adequacy of the federal response to the Hurricane Helene which hit six states and killed 251 people, 200 in North Carolina, ten days ago. "I would just tell you at the federal level, this has been a massive failure, and you could just ask the people there on the ground," House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said on Fox News Sunday. "When you talk to the people who are directly affected, they will tell you that this has been an abject failure. FEMA has lost sight of its core mission, I think, in so many cases. And the administration has not shown that they were prepared for this eventuality, in this terrible disaster." The White House has been pushing back, blaming widespread misinformation on social media for the narrative and noting that state governors have praised the federal government's response. "My administration is sparing no resource to support families as they begin their road to rebuilding," President Joe Biden said in a statement, noting he has ordered another 500 active-duty troops "with advanced technological assets" to deploy to western North Carolina in response to a request from the governor. There are now 1,500 active-duty troops supplementing more than 6,100 National Guardsmen and 7,000 federal personnel. BIDEN PUSHES CONGRESS TO PASS MORE FUNDING FOR HELENE RELIEF FEMA: 'TRULY DANGEROUS NARRATIVE CREATING FEAR': Among the complaints circulating on X and other social media platforms is that the Federal Emergency Management Agency is blocking private efforts to provide aid, that the agency is billions of dollars short because of disaster funds that were shifted to services for illegal immigrants, and that Republican areas of the state are being intentionally ignored in some cases. "You know, it's frankly ridiculous and just plain false. This kind of rhetoric is not helpful to people. You know, it's really a shame that we're putting politics ahead of helping people, and that's what we're here to do," FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said on ABC's This Week. "We've had the local officials helping to push back on this dangerous, truly dangerous narrative that is creating this fear of trying to reach out and help us or to register for help." In one example, Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, posted on his X social media platform that FEMA " is not merely failing to adequately help people in trouble, but is actively blocking citizens who try to help!" citing a note from a "SpaceX engineer helping on the ground in North Carolina." That elicited an immediate response from Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who posted, "No one is shutting down the airspace, and FAA doesn't block legitimate rescue and recovery flights. If you're encountering a problem, give me a call." Musk asked Buttigieg to "DM him a number to call." Later, Musk posted. "Thanks for helping simplify the FAA NOTAM. Support flights are now underway. Much appreciated." THE TRUTH BEHIND FEMA'S HURRICANE FUNDING SHORTFALL AND $1 BILLION MIGRANT EXPENDITURE JOHNSON: ADDITIONAL AID CAN WAIT: While the Biden Administration insists that additional hurricane relief funding is urgently needed, House Speaker Mike Johnson said, during his Fox News appearance, there is no need to call Congress back into session. "I'm from Louisiana, a hurricane-prone state where we're experts at disaster recovery. We've done this. You don't just send estimates to the federal government. You send specific needs and requests based upon the actual damages. And that takes some time, especially with storms of this magnitude," Johnson said. "We'll be back in session immediately after the election. That's 30 days from now. The thing about these hurricanes and disasters of this magnitude is that it takes a while to calculate the actual damages, and the states are going to need some time to do that." "Congress, he said," will do its job. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER THE RUNDOWN: Washington Examiner: Biden ending parole for migrants admitted to US through CBP One app Washington Examiner: Biden sees lowest year of illegal immigrant arrests Washington Examiner: Biden pushes Congress to pass more funding for Helene relief Washington Examiner: The truth behind FEMA's hurricane funding shortfall and $1 billion migrant expenditure Washington Examiner: Trump vows to deport Haitian immigrants despite failing before: What to know Washington Examiner: DHS and FBI warn of possible violence on Oct. 7 anniversary Washington Examiner: Biden pick for top Libya role withdraws after Senate slow-walked confirmation Washington Examiner: Harris pivots on questions about if Netanyahu is listening to the US: 60 Minutes Washington Examiner: Letter from the Editor: Joe, here's the nuke Iran deal AP: US Launches Airstrikes by Fighter Jets and Ships on Yemen's Iran-Backed Houthi Rebels Washington Post: Mossad's pager operation: Inside Israel's penetration of Hezbollah Washington Post: Iran's Missile Attack on Israel Raises Questions About Limits of Arsenal AP: Israel intensifies bombardment of Gaza and southern Lebanon ahead of Oct. 7 anniversary Washington Post: The female soldiers who predicted Oct. 7 say they are still being silenced New York Times: Ukraine's Donbas Strategy: Retreat Slowly and Maximize Russia's Losses Wall Street Journal: US Wiretap Systems Targeted in China-Linked Hack Air & Space Forces Magazine: Two New Tactically Responsive Space Missions to Demo Maneuver in Orbit Defense News: Can the Air Force Make Its Next-Gen Fighter Jet Cheaper Than the F-35? SpaceNews: Vulcan Competes Second Flight Despite SRB Anomaly Defense One: Senators Want Answers from DOD on Quantum Sensing Efforts Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Boss Succeeds Van Ovost at TRANSCOM, Vowing 'Nothing Will Distract Us' Militarycom: 54 Job Types Down to 10? Air Force's Top Enlisted Leader Looks to Merge Maintenance Specialties Air & Space Forces Magazine: How to Keep Up in a Software-Defined World National Security Journal: The Unexpected Ways Iran and Russia Are Building Military Ties National Security Journal: A Regional War Has Broken Out in the Middle East The War Zone: Watch Turkey's 'Solo Turk' F-16 Demo Jet's Close Call During a Recent Airshow THE CALENDAR: MONDAY | OCTOBER 7 8 a.m. 4750 Conference Center Dr., Chantilly, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter 2024 Naval IT Day: “Delivering Warfighting Excellence at Speed Through Modernization, Emerging Capabilities, and World Class Talent," with Daniel Corbin, CTO, Marine Corps; and Jane Rathbun, CIO, Navy Department https://afceanova.swoogo.com/NavalITDay2024#about 9:30 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “Never Again Is Not Enough: Remembering the Tragedy of October 7,” with E. J. Kimball, director of Christian engagement, Combat Antisemitism Movement; Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president of research, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Fred Fleitz, vice chair, America First Policy Institute Center for American Security; Mort Klein, national president, Zionist Organization of America; Tricia Miller, director of CAMERA Partnership of Christians and Jews; and Mario Bramnick, co-chair, National Task Force to Combat Antisemitism https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/event/never-again-not-enough 10 a.m. — National Interest virtual discussion: "The Middle East One Year After October 7," with Greg Priddy, senior fellow for the Middle East, Center for the National Interest: and Joshua Yaphe, visiting fellow, Center for the National Interest and former lead analyst for the Arabian Peninsula at the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar 2 p.m. — Middle East Forum in partnership with American Jewish University podcast: "October 7: One Year Later," with Gregg Roman, director of the Middle East Forum; and Jonathan Spyer, director of research, Middle East Forum and editor, Middle East Quarterly https://www.aju.edu/events/aju-mef-present-october-7-one-year-later 4 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “A Region Aflame: October 7 A Year Later,” with Dana El Kurd, assistant professor of politics, University of Richmond; Natan Sachs, director, Brookings Institution Center for Middle East Policy; Daniel Byman, senior fellow, CSIS Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program; and Jon Alterman, director, CSIS Middle East Program https://www.csis.org/events/region-aflame-october-7-year-later 4 p.m. — Common Good virtual discussion: “October 7th Attack: One Year Later,” with Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Thomas Nides, vice chairman of Blackstone; and Richard Salmon, lawyer https://www.thecommongoodus.org/upcoming-events/october-7th-attack-one-year-later 4:30 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute virtual discussion: "October 7, One Year Later: The Hamas Attack, the Future of Gaza, and Challenges for the United States," with Danielle Pletka, AEI distinguished senior fellow; Elliott Abrams, Council on Foreign Relations; retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula; and former Israeli national security adviser Eyal Hulata https://www.aei.org/events/october-7-one-year-later 5 p.m. — New York Review of Books virtual discussion: "Gaza, Israel, and the American Left: October 7 One Year Later," with contributors Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security adviser for strategic communications; Suzy Hansen, journalist, author, and Pankaj Mishra, essayist and novelist https://www.eventbrite.com/e/gaza-israel-and-the-american-left-october-7-one-year-later TUESDAY | OCTOBER 8 9 a.m. — George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies sixth annual North Korea Economic Forum Conference: “The North Korean Economy in a Changing Global Order," with Hojye Kang, senior lecturer, Berlin Free University Institute of Korean Studies https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/the-6th-annual-north-korea-economic-forum-conference 10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program and U.S. Naval Institute in-person and virtual event: "At the Helm of Innovation: A discussion: Advancing Naval Capabilities," with Vice Adm. James Pitts, deputy chief of naval operations for warfighting requirements and capabilities; retired Rear Adm. Raymond Spicer, chief executive officer and publisher, U.S. Naval Institute; and Seth Jones, CSIS senior vice president and director, International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/helm-innovation-discussion 12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion: The Ukraine War and the Eurasian World Order, with Glenn Diesen, professor, University of Southeast Norway and associate editor, Russia in Global Affairs journal; Artin DerSimonian, junior research fellow in the Quincy Institute Eurasia Program; and Anatol Lieven, director, Quincy Institute Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/events/the-ukraine-war-and-the-eurasian-world-order/ 12 p.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, Alwaleed Center for Muslim-Christian Understanding, and Democracy for the Arab World Now forum: “The Israel-Gaza War: One Year Later,” with Mouin Rabbani, co-editor of Jadaliyya; Sarah Leah Whitson, executive director of DAWN; Arie Dubnov, associate professor of history and international affairs at George Washington University; and Yousef Munayyer, senior fellow, Arab Center https://georgetown.zoom.us/webinar/register 1 p.m. 1777 F St. NW — Council on Foreign Relations discussion: “Russian Aggression Beyond Ukraine,” with Max Bergmann, director, Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow, Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Program (virtual); Andrea Kendall-Taylor, director, Center for a New American Security Transatlantic Security Program; and Adam Segal, CFR chair in emerging technologies and national security https://tinyurl.com/3mt7k6cr 1:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: discussion: “The Future of U.S. Strategy Toward Iran: A Bipartisan Roadmap for the Next Administration, with Former Australian Ambassador to Iran Paul Foley; former Deputy Director of National Intelligence Beth Sanner; former National Intelligence Officer for the Near East Alan Pino; Sanam Vakil, director, Chatham House Middle East and North Africa Program; former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta; and former White House national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Hoover Institution senior fellow, WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 9 9 a.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies discussion: “How Is Ukrainian Opinion Changing as the War Grinds On? Discussion of New Data from a Five-Wave Survey,” with Samuel Rogers, political economist; Balint Madlovics, political scientist/economist and research fellow, CEU Democracy Institute in Budapest; and Marlene Laruelle, research professor of international affairs and political science, George Washington University and director, Illiberalism Studies Program https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/how-is-ukrainian-opinion-changing-as-the-war-grinds-on 11 a.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Space Policy Institute book discussion: Space Warfare Strategy, Principles and Policy, with author John Klein, SPI professor; Col. William Sanders, U.S. Space Force division chief for strategy, policy and plans; and Peter Hays, SPI professor https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/book-launch-space-warfare-strategy 11 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave., NW — American Enterprise Institute in-person and virtual event: "Xi Jinping's Search for a Lasting Legacy," with Derek Scissors, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Dan Blumenthal, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Stephen Ezell, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation; Dean Cheng, U.S. Institute of Peace; and moderator Bonnie Glaser, German Marshall Fund https://www.aei.org/events/xi-jinpings-search-for-a-lasting-legacy 1 p.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: “Youth Resilience in War-Torn Ukraine,” with U.N. Youth Delegate Yurii Lomikovsky https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events 5:30 p.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University SNF Agora Institute discussion: “The New Propaganda: Autocracy Inc. and the U.S. Election,” with Sasha Havlicek, CEO, Institute for Strategic Dialogue; Renee DiResta, former research manager, Stanford Internet Observatory; Anne Applebaum, fellow, SNF Agora Institute; and Peter Pomerantsev, fellow, SNF Agora Institute https://hub.jhu.edu/events/2024/10/09/the-new-propaganda-autocracy THURSDAY | OCTOBER 10 8 a.m. 5000 Seminary Rd., Alexandria, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club 2024 GovCon International Summit: "How international partnerships, coalition warfare and emerging technologies are reshaping the defense landscape and how the U.S. can stay ahead, curve," with Schuyler Moore, CTO at U.S. Central Command; and Michael Miller, director, Defense Security Cooperation Agency https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-govcon-international-summit/ 10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: "The changing nature of counterintelligence threats,” with Michael Casey, director, National Counterintelligence and Security Center; and Suzanne Spaulding, senior adviser for homeland security, CSIS International Security Program https://www.csis.org/events/counterintelligence-20-fireside-conversation 11:15 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “The Global Risks Facing the Next President,” with Senate Intelligence Chairman Mark Warner (D-VA). https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/elections-2024-sen-mark-warner 6 p.m. 14th and F Sts. NW — National Press Club book discussion: Twenty Years: Hope, War, and Betrayal of an Afghan Generation, with author Sune Engel Rasmussen, foreign correspondent, Wall Street Journal https://www.press.org/events/npc-headliners-book-event SATURDAY | OCTOBER 12 TBA Ramstein Air Base, Germany — President Joe Biden hosts a leader-level meeting, Ukraine Defense Contact Group to coordinate with international partners on additional assistance for Ukraine | | | | "By taking counsel of its fears, the Biden administration set up Afghanistan for a return to the Dark Ages, set up Ukraine for a hideous war of attrition that it may lose, and will now set up the Middle East and the world beyond for a nuclear-armed Iran. This is not prudence, but strategic folly. There is little time to correct it and avoid worse to come." | | Eliot Cohen, former State Department counselor, writing in The Atlantic |
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