Daily on Defense: Rutte in Kyiv, Zelensky wants Israel style defense, Russian advance slows, debate over whether to strike Iran’s nuclear infrastructure

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BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

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RUTTE IN KYIV: NATO's new secretary-general, just three days into the job, made his first official visit — not to a NATO ally — but to a future NATO member, to show support for Ukraine's two-and-half-year war with Russia.

"It was important to me that I come to Ukraine at the start of my mandate to make crystal clear to you, to the people of Ukraine, and to everyone watching, that NATO stands with Ukraine," Mark Rutte said at a joint news conference in Kyiv with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. "Your security matters for ours, and your fight for freedom reflects our core principles and values."

"Ukraine is closer to NATO than ever before and will continue on this path until you become a member of our alliance," Rutte pledged. "And let me add to that, if somebody might think otherwise, that Russia on this issue has no vote and no veto."

Rutte faced expected questions about Ukraine's repeated requests for permission to use all weapons supplied by the West to hit anywhere on Russian soil, from which planes and missiles are being launched to attack Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure.

"Ukraine obviously has the right to defend itself, and international law here is on the side of Ukraine, meaning that this right does not end at the border," Rutte said, indicating the issue would be on the agenda when the leaders of NATO countries, including President Joe Biden, meet in Germany next weekend. "I know some of these discussions are ongoing, but in the end, that's not for NATO. That's up for each ally to decide what restrictions are there on the weapons they deliver to Ukraine."

ZELENSKY: WHAT WORKS IN THE MIDDLE EAST CAN WORK FOR UKRAINE: Once again, Zelensky has observed what the United States has done to help protect Israel, with its missile defense-equipped warships in the Mediterranean Sea shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles, and asked, "Why not us?"

"Thank God there are allies who defended the people in Israel," Zelensky said as Rutte looked on. "Undoubtedly, we want people not to forget about Ukraine."

"And the best way to not forget about Ukraine is to provide weaponry, to provide respective permissions, it seems to me," he said. "And to help down, by the way, the very same Iranian missiles and drones — to shoot them down just as they are being shot down in the skies of Israel."

"It is crucial, especially ahead of winter, to strengthen Ukraine's air defense and make real progress in jointly intercepting Russian missiles and drones," Zelensky said later in his nightly video address

"We see that one of the main reasons for the security deficit in the skies of Ukraine, and in particular near the borders of NATO, our neighbors, is the lack of decisions on joint operations and joint defense. What works in the skies of the Middle East and helps Israel's defense can work just as well in the skies of our part of Europe – in Ukraine – helping to save lives."

ISW: RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE SLOWING, STALLING: While Russia continues to pour resources into its effort to expand its hold on territory in eastern Ukraine, it is paying a heavy price for minimal gains, according to the latest assessment from the Institute for the Study of War. 

"Russian forces have recently made notable tactical gains but have not demonstrated a capacity to seize operationally significant objectives," the ISW says. "Ukrainian forces are conducting an effective defense in depth along the frontline, inflicting significant losses upon Russian forces while slowly giving ground but preventing the Russian military from making more rapid gains on the battlefield."

"It is right that they retreat and save their lives for the sake of saving their lives," Zelensky said. "Without certain equipment, we cannot stop the Russian Federation … It is destroying everything, and when it destroys the positions of our warriors, the warriors need to save their lives because they are way more important than any buildings."

"Russian forces do not have the available manpower and material to continue intensified offensive efforts indefinitely, however, and current Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine will likely culminate in the coming months, if not weeks," the ISW concludes.

TRUMP'S NEBULOUS PLAN TO NEGOTIATE A 'VERY FAIR, RAPID DEAL' TO END UKRAINE WAR IS ZELENSKY'S BIGGEST EXISTENTIAL NIGHTMARE

Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.

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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr. are both scheduled to speak at this morning's change of command ceremony at Scott Air Force, where Air Force Gen. Randall Reed, assumes command from retiring Air Force Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost. The Pentagon is livestreaming the remarks at 11 a.m. on its website.

ISRAEL'S NEXT MOVE: With Israel vowing to retaliate for Iran's largest-ever ballistic missile attack this week, a debate is raging about how hard it should hit back. Would striking Iran's nuclear facilities go too far? Are oil refineries or military targets a more appropriate choice? 

President Biden, who's already on record opposing an attack on Iran's nuclear plants, is calling for a "proportional" response. "Will you let Israel retaliate?" a reporter asked Biden as he was about to board Marine One for a trip to survey hurricane damage.

"First of all, we don't allow Israel. We advise Israel," Biden said. But when asked if he would support Israel striking Iran's oil facilities, Biden replied, "We're in discussion of that."

"Israeli response options include striking Iranian nuclear facilities; attacking energy producing infrastructure; and going after the military industrial complex, especially ballistic missile production sites. Attacking Iranian leadership [is] possible," former Supreme NATO Commander retired Adm. James Stavridis posted on X. "It’ll be a strong response. I’d bet on military industrial targets."

"I don't think there will be an all out war," Biden said last night upon his return to Washington. I think it can be avoided."

BIDEN OPPOSES ISRAELI RETALIATORY STRIKE ON IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES

GRAHAM: 'THIS IS THE 1930’S ALL OVER AGAIN': South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) argued the president should drop the language about a proportional response and "coordinate an overwhelming response with Israel, starting with Iran's ability to refine oil."

"This is a moment of choosing for the free world regarding Iran. The Ayatollah and Iranian regime are religious Nazis who want to destroy the state of Israel – their words, not mine," Graham said in a statement. "These oil refineries need to be hit and hit hard because that is the source of cash for the regime to perpetrate their terror."

"This is the 1930’s all over again. G7 leaders, led by President Biden, are urging Israel to have a proportional and limited response against the Iranian regime," Graham posted on X. "We cannot allow the world to miscalculate Iran, just as it did with Hitler and the Nazis."

"Would a proportional response be launching 200 ballistic missiles from Israel into Iran, mimicking what the Iranians did to Israel? … Iran is not trying to build peaceful nuclear power plants. The regime is trying to build a nuclear bomb to achieve its religious objectives," Graham argues. "I truly believe if Iran had a nuclear weapon, the Ayatollah would use it against Israel."

"Israel should respond to Iran the way the U.S. would respond if some country launched 180 missiles at us," Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) posted on X. "And they should do in Lebanon what we would be demanding our leaders do if terrorists were launching anti-tank rockets at us from a neighboring country, forcing 60,000 Americans to evacuate their homes and farms for almost a year."

THIS IS WHAT ISRAEL COULD HIT IN RESPONSE TO IRAN ICBM ATTACK

ARMS CONTROL ADVOCATES FEAR PUSHING IRAN TO FAR: The Arms Control Association is warning that striking nuclear facilities could have the unintended consequence of convincing Iran that it's only true protection against Israel would be to develop a nuclear deterrent.

"Further escalation, particularly retaliatory strikes against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, could push Tehran to develop nuclear weapons," said Daryl Kimball, the group executive director, in a statement.

"Iran already has the knowledge necessary to build a nuclear explosive device — that knowledge cannot be bombed away," Kimball argues. "Any setback in Iran's nuclear capabilities would be temporary and would likely lead Iran to rebuild its program and further harden its facilities against future attacks. More concerningly, military strikes could push Iran to withdraw from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and pursue nuclear weapons."

"I would weigh the question, when you know that Iran is building nuclear capabilities, and we saw the ballistic missiles flying into Israel, you ask yourself, until when the Westerns watch and wait until they will actually be able to put together a nuclear bomb on a ballistic missile, it’s totally, I’ve told you that we can take no chances," Danny Danon, Israel's U.S. ambassador said on CNN. "When you are radical leaders threatening to destroy the Jewish nation, we better believe them."

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: Trump's nebulous plan to negotiate a 'very fair, rapid deal' to end Ukraine war is Zelensky's biggest existential nightmare

Washington Examiner: Israel targets presumed new Hezbollah chief in strike

Washington Examiner: Trump says Supreme Court Jan. 6 obstruction ruling should topple federal case

Washington Examiner: Tina Peters sentenced to nine years in prison for voting data breach

New York Times: Israel Bombs Beirut Site, Targeting Presumed Successor to Slain Hezbollah Leader

New York Times: Israel May Be Prepared To Risk An All-Out War With Iran

Business Insider: A U.S. Navy Missile That Just Scored Its First Kill This Year Got Another Workout Against Iranian Weapons

Washington Post: The female soldiers who predicted Oct. 7 say they are still being silenced

AP: Israeli airstrikes rock southern suburbs of Beirut and cut off a key crossing into Syria

Reuters: Houthis’ Email Alert To Red Sea Ships: Prepare For Attack, With Best Regards

Bloomberg: US Will Spend $1.2 Billion to Restock Arms After Iran, Houthi Attacks

The War Zone: Navy Making Final Selection For F/A-XX Stealth Fighter, Plans For 2030s Service Entry

Military Times: More Troops Could Be Mobilized to Help with Hurricane Helene Relief

AP: North Korea's Kim threatens to destroy South Korea with nuclear strikes if provoked

USNI News: China Coast Guard Now Operating In The Bering Sea

AP: The US and Microsoft Disrupt a Russian Hacking Group Targeting American Officials and Nonprofits

AP: UK gives sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. The US base on Diego Garcia stays

Breaking Defense: Despite Hold on Diego Garcia, UK's Move to Return Chago Islands Sparks Security Concerns

Defense One: What Reports Got Wrong About China's 'Sunken Nuclear Submarine'

AP: Filing in Trump case details remarkable schism with Pence over rejecting 2020 election loss

Air & Space Forces Magazine: The Focus Is Fighting Tonight For New Air Mobility Boss

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Herk For Life: Test Pilot Hits 10,000 Flight Hours in the C-130

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Leidos Says New 'Black Arrow' Small Cruise Missile Is Ready for Flight Test

DefenseScoop: Pentagon Contracts for $96M in Oura Smart Rings, Devices

SpaceNews: NRO Expanding Satellite Network Designed to Support Military Operations

Breaking Defense: Space Force's New 'Lexicon': Move to Define Concepts Wins Praise, Courts Concerns

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Photos: Big, Ugly, and Orange B-52 Lands at Barksdale

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Keeping the Air Force Powered Up

THE CALENDAR: 

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 4

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Middle East Program book discussion: The Melting Point: High Command and War in the 21st Century, with author retired Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, former commander of U.S. Central Command https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/book-talk-melting-point

12 p.m. — Foundation for Defense of Democracies virtual discussion: "Targeting Taiwan: Beijing's Playbook for Economic and Cyber Warfare," with Craig Singleton, FDD; retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, FDD; Ti-Chen Chen, Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance; Ben Jensen, Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Lili Pike, Foreign Policy  https://www.fdd.org/events/2024/10/04/targeting-taiwan-beijings-playbook

11 a.m. 11200 SW Eighth St., Miami, FL — Brookings Institution discussion: “The U.S. and China in Latin America: Rivalry, Cooperation, or Something In-Between?” with R. Evan Ellis, research professor, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute; Leland Lazarus, associate director of national security policy, Florida International University Institute for Public Policy; Valerie Wirtschafter, fellow, Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Program; Ted Piccone, nonresident senior fellow in the Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Center and Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology; and Arantxa Loizaga, network news anchor for NBCUniversal Telemundo https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-united-states-and-china-in-latin-america

SATURDAY | OCTOBER 12

TBA Ramstein Air Base, Germany — President Joe Biden hosts a leader-level meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to coordinate with international partners on additional assistance for Ukraine

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"I was a Republican even before Donald Trump started spray tanning."
Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY), appearing at a campaign event with Kamala Harris in the battleground state of Wisconsin, announcing she was honored to cast her vote for Harris.
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