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Top stories today: - OpenAI projects $101B in revenue in 2029
- Writer launches Palmyra X 004 LLM, saying it is best in tool calling
- Amazon launches AI-powered Shopping Guides for 100+ product types
- Feds charge 4 companies, 15 people with crypto fraud
- China's equity volatility surges to highest since 2016
- VC exits below initial investment hit highest (70%) since 2008 financial crisis
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0. Data and calendar |
| All values as of 6 AM ET / 3 AM PT, other than S&P500 and NASDAQ close (4 PM ET / 1 PM PT). |
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| All times are ET. |
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Listen to our AI-generated podcast summarizing today's newsletter: |
| Bay Area Times Daily - Oct. 10, 2024 ► Play Online |
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1. OpenAI projects $101B in revenue in 2029, losses reaching $14B by 2026 |
2029E revenue: $55B from ChatGPT, $22B from API sales, and $24B from other products: |
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Profitability expected in 2029, with $14B in projected adjusted profits. ~$340M cash burn in 1H 2024, leaving $1B in cash before raising the recent $6.6B round. $200B+ spending expected by decade's end, with 60% - 80% each year allocated to training or running LLMs. 41% gross margin expected for this year.
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$5B in losses are projected for 2024, even excluding stock-based compensation, with $4B in revenue |
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Relatedly, OpenAI plans to restructure as a public benefit corporation, helping restrict hostile takeovers |
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A PBC business is required to balance the best interests of shareholders, employees, and the public. A "safe harbor" to wave off activists who accuse the company of not making enough money. OpenAI will likely retain a separate, not-for-profit entity, which would have a stake in the PBC.
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3. Writer launches Palmyra X 004 LLM, saying it is best in calling, using other tools |
Palmyra X 004 leads in tool-calling accuracy, ahead of GPT-4-turbo, GPT-4o, Claude-3.5-Sonnet, and Gemini 1.5 Flash, according to Writer: |
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4. Amazon launches AI-powered Shopping Guides for 100+ product types |
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5. Feds charge 4 companies, 15 people with crypto fraud |
Gotbit, ZM Quant, MyTrade, and CLS Global have been charged by federal prosecutors in Boston: |
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4 arrests and 5 plea agreements over crypto manipulation. $25M+ worth of crypto seized. FBI directed the creation of crypto company NexFundAI for investigation. ZM Quant, CLS Global, and MyTrade helped manipulate a token created by NexFundAI. SEC filed related civil cases to restrict manipulation.
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6. China's equity volatility surges to highest since 2016 as market expected better stimulus |
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7. VC exits below initial investment hit highest since 2008 financial crisis |
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70% of VC-backed exits have been valued below the capital invested since 2022. 2009-2014: That figure was 58%. Seed and early-stage startups have higher loss ratios. A majority of Series D and beyond startups exits were at a loss since 2022. 25% of Andreessen Horowitz's startup investments go to 0 amid slowdown.
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8. LatAm startup funding +13% to $884M in Q3 |
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+74% in early-stage funding to $401M. +18% angle-seed funding to $148M. -33% late-stage funding to $245M.
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-47% overall deal volume in Q3, with 71 angel and seed rounds, 25 early-stage, and 6 late-stage rounds |
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9. Interesting videos, posts, and memes |
| Flying Cars Have Arrived! eVTOL Panel: Archer, Joby, Wisk | All-In Summit 2024 |
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| Meta VS Apple: What Their Battle Means For AI Startups |
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| TWiST News: M.G. Siegler Explains the Current Venture Crisis and Google's Antitrust Woes | E2023 |
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| Jeff Wang: Sequoia Capital's $9BN Global Equities Fund on The Future for NVIDIA, Google & Meta|E1212 |
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10. Other headlines |
AI |
OpenAI chairman Bret Taylor's startup Sierra in talks to raise at $4B+ value. Meta AI expands to 6 more countries, with plans to reach 15 more soon. Wikipedia editors form WikiProject AI Cleanup to restrict AI-generated content. UK defense ministry uses AI model by Palantir for defense review. Zoom to launch AI-animated, photorealistic avatars from user videos in 2025.
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Tech |
Internet Archive hacked, data breach exposes 31M accounts. Amazon to expand same-day prescription deliveries to 20+ U.S. cities in 2025. Amazon Prime Video adds Apple TV+ in U.S. Wordpress.org requiring users to denounce affiliation with WP Engine to log in. Satya Nadella instructs staff to schedule 2 calls per day with other CEOs.
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Tech & law |
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Biotech |
Basecamp Research raises $60M for "GPT for biology." MitoRx shows mitochondrial therapy has potential for weight loss. GSK shares +6% after settlement of 80K Zantac lawsuits in U.S. CVS, UnitedHealth, Cigna ask FTC's Khan to disqualify from insulin case. Illumina launches compact, low-cost gene sequencing devices.
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Business |
Hurricane Milton leaves 3M+ without power. Tesla's China-made EV sales +19.2% in Sep. Oil prices rise on U.S. storm, fears of Israel-Iran conflict. BMW Q3 sales -13%, weighed by China, delivery stops. TD Bank faces $3B in penalties as part of U.S. settlement. China's Chery assembles cars in Russian plants vacated by Western rivals.
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Crypto |
Trump coin World Liberty proposes launching on Aave V3 on Ethereum. FTX investors drop lawsuit against law firm Sullivan & Cromwell. Former FTX exec Ryan Salame again asks for delay in prison time, goes on Tucker. SEC chair says crypto "unlikely [is] gonna be a currency." 69K BTCs head to Treasury, as IRS agent who seized them is in Nigerian jail.
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U.S. politics |
Trump vows to reduce income taxes on Americans living abroad. Harris campaign raises $1B since she became presidential candidate: source. Trump rejects Fox News invite to debate Harris in late Oct. Harris "continues to bob and weave" in interviews: NYT.
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World |
Biden, Netanyahu hold "direct and productive" call in wake of Iranian attack. White House pushes to elect Lebanese president without Hezbollah support. Israel's Gallant: attack on Iran will be "lethal, precise, surprising." Russia suffered 600K+ casualties in Ukraine: U.S. official. China to hold nationwide survey on population changes. India to build nuclear submarines, buy drones to counter China.
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