| THE WORLD WATCHES: On this Election Day, much of the world is focused on the U.S. presidential election that offers a stark choice between two aspiring commanders-in-chief with very different views of the role of America in the world. But no one is likely watching with more trepidation than Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who already sees weakening Western support for Ukraine's war with Russia and fears Donald Trump, the "America First" candidate, would pull the plug completely on U.S. military aid to force Ukraine to accept an end to the war on Russian President Vladimir Putin's terms. "I will end the war in Ukraine, which would have never started if I was president," Trump repeated at a rally in Reading, Pennsylvania, the battleground state that could very well determine who gets the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. "And I will stop the chaos in the Middle East," he added. These are dark days for Ukraine, with Russian troops slowly gaining ground on the Eastern front, the introduction of North Korean soldiers to the battlefield of Kursk, the tiny sliver of Russian territory Ukraine is holding as a buffer zone, and daily attacks from Iranian-made 'Shahed' drones. "Russia is gradually escalating this activity. And, sadly, it is still able to use Western components for this," Zelensky said in a recent video address. "In October, more than 2,000 'Shahed' drones were used against Ukraine, against our people. Literally, every single day. This number of 'Shahed' drones means more than 170,000 components that should have been blocked from being supplied to Russia." And last night, Zelensky said his intelligence services now estimate there are 11,000 North Korean troops in the Kursk region. "We are seeing an increase in North Koreans but, unfortunately, not an increase in our partners' response." UKRAINE REPORTS FIRST CLASH WITH NORTH KOREAN TROOPS IN KURSK REGION NATO: 'WHOEVER WINS THOSE ELECTIONS, WE WILL WORK WITH': Trump's former national security adviser John Bolton has been warning for months that Trump's long-standing antipathy for NATO may lead him to pull out of the alliance, which Bolton says would be a "catastrophic mistake." "But it's a real possibility in a second Trump administration. It would be a terrible blow to American and broader Western interests worldwide," he said. At NATO headquarters yesterday, after a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte expressed confidence the 75-year-old alliance will survive no matter the outcome. "Whoever wins those elections, we will work with — Kamala Harris, we will work with Donald Trump — and make sure that the alliance stays united," Rutte said. "I have no doubt, because it is in our interest. It is our interest here, but also the United States, because they are not in this to not repeat the mistake after the First World War of withdrawing for Europe." "They are in this because they know that if Putin would be successful in Ukraine, that at that moment, an emboldened Russia is on our eastern flank and will present a direct threat to NATO territory, and they are right there involved in Ukraine, they are involved in NATO and are an integral part of the Alliance." TRUMP'S NEBULOUS PLAN TO NEGOTIATE A 'VERY FAIR, RAPID DEAL' TO END UKRAINE WAR IS ZELENSKY'S BIGGEST EXISTENTIAL NIGHTMARE HARRIS WARNS SOUTH KOREA OF TRUMP: In an essay published by the South Korean news agency Yonhap, Vice President Kamala Harris warned that Donald Trump's election would mean a much bigger bill for the long-time ally, given Trump's actions when he was president and his frequent complaints that allies are not paying enough for U.S. protection. "In 2022, I stood at the DMZ and reaffirmed the United States' ironclad commitment to the defense of South Korea. I know our alliance has been a linchpin of security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and around the world," Harris wrote. "Trump, by contrast, is demanding that South Korea pay $10 billion a year to host our troops despite its already sizable contributions — disparaging our alliance and disregarding America's standing in the Indo-Pacific." "More than 36,000 Americans and over 137,000 Korean soldiers gave their lives during the Korean War, fighting side by side to defend freedom and liberty. During last year’s state visit with President Yoon Suk Yeol, I promised to honor this bond as we commemorated the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-ROK alliance." WHO DO US ADVERSARIES WANT TO WIN, TRUMP OR HARRIS? Good Tuesday morning. It's Election Day. Vote as if the future of our nation is at stake. And welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie (@chriswtremo). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not publish Monday, Nov. 11 as we observe Veterans Day. In addition, Daily on Defense will be on an extended Thanksgiving break from Nov.18-29. HAPPENING TODAY: Security is tight for this Election Day, with extra fencing installed around the U.S. Capitol, the White House, and the Vice President's residence on Massachusetts Avenue. The FBI is manning a national election command post 24/7 at its Washington headquarters and asking people to submit tips if they see suspicious activity. Businesses and restaurants in downtown Washington have taken the precaution of boarding up windows and doors in case of violence. While the Pentagon announced that ten states — Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Iowa, Illinois, North Carolina, New Mexico, Oregon, Wisconsin, and Washington state — have activated National Guard troops, while ten others have troops on standby. "The National Guard has ongoing and long-standing relationships with local, state, and federal agency partners and has assisted with national special security events like Election Day and Inauguration Day for many years," Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters at a Pentagon briefing. "It is routine practice for the DOD to authorize the D.C. National Guard to support or augment security for large-scale events in the district, and activated Guardsmen will remain under the command and control of the D.C. National Guard." Concerns about potential violence have been elevated because of Donald Trump's frequent statements that the only way he can lose is if the election is rigged and his repeated refusal to say if he will accept the results regardless of the outcome. "So, it's hard to believe that I'm winning, it seems by a lot. If they don't cheat too much," Trump said in Phoenix, Arizona. "And think of it, I'm leading by a lot. I'm leading in every single swing state with all of the stuff they've done." "They want to cheat. And they do cheat. They cheat like hell," Trump said at a North Carolina rally, while in Virginia, he claimed to be leading in every poll. "The polls are showing we're going to win everything. We're going to win the popular vote. We're going to win everything. And I'd love to win the popular vote with them cheating. You know, let them cheat because that's what they do." FRAUD IS TOP ISSUE FOR TRUMP AND SUPPORTERS ON ELECTION DAY EVE NORTH KOREA'S LATEST MISSILE BARRAGE: In what appears to be an attention-seeking show of force, North Korea fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles into the East Sea earlier today, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff. The missile barrage, which coincided with the U.S. Election Day, posed no threat and didn't warrant the usual statement from the White House. The launch of the short-range missile came five days after the North launched its new Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile, which it boasted was the most powerful ever and would be theoretically able to target anywhere in the continental United States. RUSSIA LAUNCHES IRANIAN SATELLITES: In the latest sign of Moscow’s expanding alliance with Tehran, a Russian rocket has successfully placed a pair of Iranian satellites into orbit. Video shows the launch from the Vostochny Cosmodrome in far eastern Russia. Russia’s Roscosmos space agency said the two Iranian Ionosfera-M satellites are intended to monitor the Earth’s ionosphere, according to Reuters. Russia launched an Iranian research satellite in February. NORTH KOREAN TROOPS JOINING RUSSIAN FORCES IN UKRAINE HIKES CONCERN OVER BURGEONING MOSCOW-PYONGYANG-TEHRAN AXIS BOEING STRIKE ENDS: After more than seven weeks of negotiation, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers voted to end its strike against Boeing, accepting a contract offer that includes a 38% wage increase over four years, along with ratification and productivity bonuses. The fourth and "final" offer from the company was approved by 59% of the factory workers who voted. "We were pleased to reach a ratified agreement with IAM 751 & W24 tonight," Boeing President and CEO Kelly Ortberg said in a statement. "While the past few months have been difficult for all of us, we are all part of the same team. We will only move forward by listening and working together. There is much work ahead to return to the excellence that made Boeing an iconic company." "I congratulate the International Association of Machinists and Boeing for coming to an agreement that reflects the hard work and sacrifices of 33,000 Machinist workers," President Joe Biden said in his overnight statement. "This contract is also important for Boeing's future as a critical part of America's aerospace sector. And it was achieved with the support of my economic team, including acting Labor Secretary Julie Su and National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard." "Over the last four years, we've shown collective bargaining works," Biden said. "Good contracts benefit workers, businesses, and consumers — and are key to growing the American economy." STRIKING BOEING MACHINISTS AGREE TO NEW CONTRACT AND OFFICIALLY END WORK STOPPAGE THE RUNDOWN: Washington Examiner: Ukraine reports first clash with North Korean troops in Kursk region Washington Examiner: Netanyahu aide accused of leaking classified ceasefire documents Washington Examiner: Who do US adversaries want to win, Trump or Harris? Washington Examiner: Swing-state scorecard: Harris and Trump enter Election Day virtually tied Washington Examiner: Trump and Harris tie in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation midnight vote Washington Examiner: Elon Musk gambled on Trump, now he'll see if it paid off Washington Examiner: Harris voters say US will descend into darkness under 'dictator' Trump Washington Examiner: W. James Antle: Vaunted Harris turnout machine seeks to steamroll Trump Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan: Russia flirts with acts of war against the United States Defense One: Hundreds of National Guard Troops Are Activated or on Standby Ahead of Election Day Washington Post: A Chaotic Presidential Transition Could Embolden US Adversaries Reuters: US states worried about election unrest take security precautions Washington Post: Russia suspected in plot to target cargo planes in Europe and the U.S. Wall Street Journal: Moldova Re-Elects Pro-Western President In Vote That Pitted Europe Against Russia The Hill: US Military Carried Out 95 Counter-ISIS Operations in Last 60 Days Stars and Stripes: US, South Korean Military Drones Carry Out Unprecedented Live-Fire Training AP: Philippine Military Drills To Seize An Island In The South China Sea USNI News: Chinese Carrier Strike Group Deploys To Philippine Sea Defense News: Air Force to Send Bomber Task Force to Europe Stars and Stripes: Navy Extends Service Life Of 3 Cruisers, Pushing Ticonderoga Class Into 2029 Maritime Executive: Report: Houthis On Track to Earn $2B a Year by Shaking Down Shipowners Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall: 'I Would Be Comfortable' If USAF Took Over Air Base Defense from Army Breaking Defense: Australia Kills $5.3B Military Space Program with Lockheed Aviation Week: USAF Expects KC-46 Deliveries to End In 2031, KC-135 Recap to Follow SpaceNews: Rocket Lab Confirms Plan to Bid for Pentagon Launch Contracts with New Medium Rocket DefenseScoop: Scale AI Unveils 'Defense Llama' Large Language Model for National Security Users Air & Space Forces Magazine: How the Air Force Reserve Is Trying To Fix Its Child Care Access Problem The Cipher Brief: In Next President's Inbox: 10 Global Nightmares The Cipher Brief: On Eve of US Election, 'High Alert' and Cautious Optimism on Foreign Interference The Cipher Brief: The US Risks Losing the Competition for 'Innovation Power' THE CALENDAR: TUESDAY | NOVEMBER 5 10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Diversity and Leadership in International Affairs Project virtual discussion: “From Military Service to Leading Veterans Affairs,” with Deputy Veterans Affairs Secretary Tanya Bradsher https://www.csis.org/events/driving-impact-live 7 p.m. — Harris-Walz Campaign election night event at Howard University, Vice President Kamala Harris's alma mater.: [email protected] WEDNESDAY | NOVEMBER 6 1:30 p.m. —Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies discussion: "Space Force: Journey of its stand-up, make-up, and a look to its future,” with Lt. Gen. Douglass Schiess, commander, U.S. Space Forces and combined joint force space component commander, U.S. Space Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/sss-lt-gen-douglas-a-schiess-24/ 2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Harnessing Mission-First Technologies to Transform Army Readiness,” with Maj. Gen. Glenn Dean, program executive officer of Army Ground Combat Systems; and Sgt. Maj. Brian Hester, senior ranking non-commissioned officer at Army Futures Command https://events.govexec.com/harnessing-mission-first-technologies THURSDAY | NOVEMBER 7 10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “First in War, First in Peace: Building Post-Conflict Stability and Democracy,” focusing on the example of George Washington and the role of military veterans in securing stability and democracy,” with Lindsay Chervinsky, executive director, George Washington Presidential Library; Marine Corps Brig. Gen. Maura Hennigan, commanding general, 2nd Marine Logistics Group; retired Army Col. Carolyn Washington, adjunct professor at Florida State University; and Keith Mines, vice president, USIP Latin America Program https://www.usip.org/events/first-war-first-peace-2024 10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies and the Smithsonian Institution Cultural Rescue Initiative discussion: “Safeguarding Ukraine’s Cultural Heritage from Russia’s War,” with Richard Kurin, Smithsonian scholar; and Katharyn Hanson, Smithsonian scholar https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/safeguarding-ukraines-cultural-heritage 10:30 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “The U.S. Election: Implications for the U.S., the EU, and Global Politics.” https://www.gmfus.org/event/us-election-implications-us-eu-and-global-politics 1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Funding Allied Innovation: Ensuring Advanced Capabilities for the Future Warfighter,” with Barbara McQuiston, chair, NATO Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic’s board of directors; Fiona Murray, vice chairman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology NATO Innovation Fund; Jason Rathje, director, Defense Department Office of Strategic Capital; and Cynthia Cook, director, CSIS Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group https://www.csis.org/events/funding-allied-innovation FRIDAY | NOVEMBER 8 8:30 a.m. 2445 M. St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conversation: "Climate Security is National Security" with Brendan Owens, assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations and environment, and chief sustainability officer email [email protected]. 2 p.m. 1030 15th Street NW — Atlantic Council Global China Hub virtual discussion of new report: “Capture the (Red) Flag: An Inside Look Into China’s Hacking Contest Ecosystem," with Jessica Ruzic, CISA deputy associate chief of policy; Eugenio Benincasa, senior researcher, cyberdefense project on ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies Risk and Resilience Team; Dakota Cary, nonresident fellow, Atlantic Council Global China Hub; Devin Thorne, principal threat intelligence analyst for China geopolitics at Recorded Future; Anastacia Webster, lead of CISA’s Academic Partnerships and Outreach Sub-Division; and Melanie Hart, senior director, Atlantic Council Global China Hub https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/capture-the-red-flag-an-inside-look-into-chinas-hacking-contest-ecosystem/ 2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “The New Lives of Russians in Exile,” with Aron Ouzilevski, Institute of Current World Affairs fellow; Lyubov Sobol, Russian opposition politician; Anna Veduta, director of strategic communication, Free Russia Foundation; and Gregory Feifer, Institute of Current World Affairs executive director https://www.usip.org/events/new-lives-russians-exile | | | | "On the American elections, whoever wins those elections, we will work with. Kamala Harris, we will work with Donald Trump and make sure that the alliance stays united. I have no doubt, because it is in our interest. It is our interest here, but also the United States." | | NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, speaking Monday at NATO headquarters in Brussels |
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