| ASSAD REGIME FALLS 'GRADUALLY AND THEN SUDDENLY': No matter how tight a dictator's iron grip on power may seem, the ruler lives under the nagging fear that, at any moment, it could all come to a crashing end. So it was for Syria's brutal dictator Bashar Assad, who, after rebels captured Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, on Nov. 29, vowed to defeat the insurgents, all the while moving his family to Moscow and making plans to flee to Russia. Assad could read the signs his regime was cracking, the biggest one being that his military and notorious security forces were no longer willing to die following his orders. As his soldiers abandoned their posts in the face of advancing rebels, the outcome became inevitable. Assad's fall followed, in the immortal words of Ernest Hemingway, "Gradually and then suddenly." "Assad's backers — Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah — have all been weakened and distracted, and so he has not had the support from those three actors that he expected to be able to count on, and has been left basically naked," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at the Reagan National Defense Forum Sunday. "Iran having been exposed and weakened; Hezbollah having been badly degraded by Israel; and Russia being ground down in a war of attrition in the east in Ukraine — none of them are prepared to provide the kind of support to Assad that they provided in the past." Syrians around the world celebrated with street demonstrations, while in the capital city of Damascus and other cities across the country, tens of thousands of political prisoners, many of whom had been tortured and faced death sentences, were freed and could be seen in videos on social media running from prisons, joyful that the Assad era was over. ASSAD SAFE IN MOSCOW AFTER RUSSIA OFFERS DEPOSED SYRIAN LEADER ASYLUM BIDEN: 'A MOMENT OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY': In remarks after meeting with his national security team Sunday, President Joe Biden took credit for setting the conditions that led to Assad's fall. "Our approach has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East," Biden said, arguing that "for the first time" Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah were too weak to come to Assad's rescue. "It's a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of Syria to build a better future for their proud country. It's also a moment of risk and uncertainty as we all turn to the question of what comes next," Biden said. "The United States will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risks." "[A] sovereign Syria with a new constitution, a new government that serves all Syrians. And this process will be determined by the Syrian people themselves, and the United States will do whatever we can to support them, including through humanitarian relief, to help restore Syria after more than a decade of war and generations of brutality by the Assad family." Biden also had a message for the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham opposition group, which pulled off the coup, but in the past has had ties with al Qaeda, and which the U.S. still considers a terrorist group. "Make no mistake, some of the rebel groups that took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses," Biden said, noting that while the group is "saying the right things now," the U.S. "will remain vigilant." "As they take on greater responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions," Biden said. BIDEN SAYS END OF 'BRUTAL' ASSAD REGIME IS A MOMENT OF 'HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY' TRUMP: 'THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT': President-elect Donald Trump weighed in with a series of posts both on X and his Truth Social platform. "Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer," Trump posted on his social media platform. "There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever." In his post on X, Trump blamed former President Barack Obama for not intervening when Bashar Assad used chemical weapons against opposition forces in 2013, which Obama had said would be a "a red line" that would have "enormous consequences." "All hell broke out, with Russia stepping in," Trump said while at the same time arguing that "Syria is a mess," and in all-caps for emphasis, added, "THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!" "Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success," he posed on Truth Social at 2 a.m. TRUMP BLAMES OBAMA FOR STATE OF SYRIA AND DEMANDS CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE NETANYAHU: 'TEMPORARY DEFENSIVE POSITION': Overnight Israeli tanks and armored vehicles entered the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syria, under orders from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "The Syrian army abandoned its positions. We gave the Israeli army the order to take over these positions to ensure that no hostile force embeds itself right next to the border of Israel. This is a temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found," Netanyahu said in a video posted on his official Facebook page. "This is a historic day for the Middle East. The collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus, offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers. This collapse is the direct result of our forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad's main supporters. It set off a chain reaction of all those who want to free themselves from this tyranny and its oppression," Netanyahu said. "But it also means that we have to take action against possible threats. One of them is the collapse of the Separation of Forces Agreement from 1974 between Israel and Syria. This agreement held for 50 years." VANCE CONCERNED ABOUT NEW SYRIAN LEADERSHIP: 'LITERAL OFFSHOOT OF ISIS' Good Monday morning, and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie (@chriswtremo). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email, and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will be on Christmas break from Monday, Dec. 23 through Wednesday, Jan. 1. TRUMP ON UKRAINE WAR: 'I'M TRYING TO END IT IF I CAN': In his first major interview since his election victory, President-elect Donald Trump admitted his plan to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours might not have been totally realistic. "Well, I'm trying to. I'm trying to end it if I can," Trump told NBC's Kristen Welker on Meet The Press Sunday. Trump said he hadn't spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin "recently," but when pressed by Welker about whether he'd had any conversations with Putin since the election, he waffled. "I don't want to say that. I don't want to say anything about that because I don't want to do anything that could impede the negotiation." "And the people that are being killed, hundreds of thousands on both sides. Russia's lost probably 500,000. Ukraine's lost higher than they say, probably 400,000. You're talking about hundreds of thousands of bodies laying all over the fields," Trump said. "It's the stupidest thing I've ever seen, and it should've never been allowed to happen. Biden should've been able to stop it." "I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act," Trump said on Truth Social after the interview. "There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse." When asked by Welker if Ukraine should brace for a cut in U.S. aid once he takes office, Trump replied, "Possibly. Yeah. Probably. Sure." DOD ANNOUNCES NEARLY $1 BILLION IN LONG-TERM AID TO UKRAINE AS PENTAGON FUND RUNS OUT ZELENSKY: 'TRUMP IS, AS ALWAYS, RESOLUTE': Trump in Paris over the weekend, among the world leaders and 2,500 guests invited by French President Emmanuel Macron to witness the rebirth of Notre Dame cathedral, restored after a devastating fire five years ago. It provided a chance for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to meet with both Trump and Macron together at the Élysée Palace for what Zelensky called a "good and productive trilateral meeting." "President Trump is, as always, resolute. I thank him," Zelesnky said in a post on X. "We all want this war to end as soon as possible and in a just way. We spoke about our people, the situation on the ground, and a just peace. We agreed to continue working together and keep in contact. Peace through strength is possible." "For [the people of Ukraine], there is this hope that Trump — and Trump has this position as a strong president. That is what is coming across, Zelensky said in an interview to be aired tomorrow on the Christian Broadcasting Network. "And I think that Putin understands strength only. So, then he would see that there is this strong president, strong country standing with Ukraine, and then we can achieve peace through strength. That's the hope that people have for the new administration and new president, and people believe in what he says." US UNLEASHES B-52s, F-15s, AND A-10s ON ISIS POSITIONS: As rebel forces were taking control of Syria, U.S. airpower was pounding more than 75 ISIS targets in central Syria in an effort to "prevent the terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to reconstitute in central Syria," according to the U.S. Central Command. The operation struck over 75 targets — including ISIS leaders, operatives, and camps — using multiple U.S. Air Force assets, including B-52s, F-15s, and A-10s, the U.S. military said. “There should be no doubt — we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” said CENTCOM commander Gen. Erik Kurilla, “All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they partner with or support ISIS in any way.” WHERE IS AUSTIN TICE? The end of the Assad regime has renewed hope that missing American journalist Austin Tice, who disappeared in 2012 outside Damascus, may be freed if he's still being held captive. "We are mindful that there are Americans in Syria, including those who reside there as well as Austin Tice," Biden said. "We remain committed to returning him to his family." "We believe he's alive, we think we can get him back but we have no direct evidence to that yet," he said, "We have to identify where he is." "We have from a significant source that has been already been vetted all over our government: Austin Tice is alive. Austin Tice is treated well, and there is no doubt about that," Tice's mother, Debra, said at a press conference last week. "To everyone in Syria that hears this, please remind people that we're waiting for Austin," she said in comments posted by hostage advocacy groups yesterday. "We know that when he comes out, he's going to be fairly dazed & he's going to need lots of care & direction. Direct him to his family please!" CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER THE RUNDOWN: Washington Examiner: Biden says end of 'brutal' Assad regime is a moment of 'historic opportunity' Washington Examiner: Assad safe in Moscow after Russia offers deposed Syrian leader asylum Washington Examiner: Blinken says US will support efforts to hold Assad ‘accountable’ Washington Examiner: Trump blames Obama for state of Syria and demands ceasefire in Ukraine Washington Examiner: DOD announces nearly $1 billion in long-term aid to Ukraine as Pentagon fund runs out Washington Examiner: Vance concerned about new Syrian leadership: 'Literal offshoot of ISIS' Washington Examiner: Syria's sudden uprising is a stark reminder of Obama's failed foreign policy Washington Examiner: Incoming deputy chief of staff previews Trump’s border plans Washington Examiner: Trump reveals plan to end birthright citizenship in first major post-election interview Washington Examiner: Trump rounds out State Department with flurry of picks Washington Examiner: Waltz says DOGE cutting trillions of government spending is 'practical' outlook Washington Examiner: Incoming deputy chief of staff previews Trump’s border plans Washington Examiner: Appeals court upholds law forcing TikTok divestment from China Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan: Opinion: DOGE should rebuke Space Command's proposed relocation Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Trump must be wary of Macron, the magnificent chameleon AP: Trump calls for immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and says a US withdrawal from NATO is possible AP: Who is Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of the insurgency that toppled Syria's Assad? New York Times: Air Force Not Ready to Stop Buying Human-Piloted Jets Aviation Week: USAF, Navy Should Jointly Develop New Fighter, Key Senator Says Bloomberg: SpaceX Gets US Contract to Expand Ukraine's Access to Starshield Reuters: Taiwan raises alert as China deploys 90 ships in likely drills AP: Dwarfed by China in Shipbuilding, US Looks to Build Its Defense Base to Fend Off War Air & Space Forces Magazine: PACAF Boss: As China Expands Reach of Missiles and Warplanes, US Needs 'Inside Force' SpaceNews: U.S. Space Force official warns of rising Chinese threats AP: South Korea's Justice Ministry imposes a travel ban on President Yoon over martial law Defense One: 'Multi-Headed Monster': Biden, Trump Officials Address China-Russia-Iran Coordination Military Times: Congress to Boost Junior Enlisted Pay by Thousands of Dollars in 2025 The War Zone: Former Trump Acting SECDEF Talks About the Future of Big Ticket Defense Programs Air & Space Forces Magazine: 'The Baton Will Soon Be Passed': Austin Touts B-21 Bomber as Part of Legacy Breaking Defense: NATO to Launch New Cyber Center by 2028: Official Defense News: Defense Tech Firms Establish AI-Focused Consortium Air & Space Forces Magazine: As Space Gets More Crowded, Space Force Needs New AI Tools to Keep Up: Experts Air & Space Forces Magazine: On His Last Indo-Pacific Trip as SECDEF, Austin Will See 'a Lot of Firsts' in Japan 19fortyfive.com: How America Could Takeover Russia's Tartus Naval Base in Syria 19fortyfive.com: Assad Falls: Why the Syrian Army Collapsed So Quickly 19fortyfive.com: The Lesson from Bashar al-Assad's Collapse 19fortyfive.com: Assad Is Gone: What Happens to Syria Now? 19fortyfive.com: B-21 Raider: The Air Force Will Have at Least 100 Of These New Bombers 19fortyfive.com: NATO Is Getting Even More F-35 Stealth Fighters THE CALENDAR: MONDAY | DECEMBER 9 9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “A Reproduction of Marginalization? Roma Refugees Fleeing Ukraine,” with Dejan Markovic, coordinator for Ukraine at the ERGO Network; Elzbieta Mirga-Wojtowicz, researcher at the University of Warsaw Center for Migration Research; and Lilla Eredics, GMF fellow https://www.gmfus.org/event/reproduction-marginalization-roma-refugees 1 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Last Four Years of Cyber Policy: A Retrospective,” with Robert Knake, principal at Orkestrel; Kiersten Todt, president of Wondros; and Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation https://www.csis.org/events/last-four-years-cyber-policy-retrospective 6:30 p.m. 1777 F St. NW — Council on Foreign Relations discussion: “Ukraine strategic position in the war with Russia, and how the incoming Donald Trump administration could influence Ukraine international relations and policies,” with former Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba, senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; and former Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, vice chair of the Atlantic Council Scowcroft Center for Strategy & Security RSVP to [email protected] TUESDAY | DECEMBER 10 9 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies virtual discussion: “Europe Missile Renaissance: New Conventional Deterrence Options,” focusing on Russia use of ballistic and cruise missiles in Ukraine, with Douglas Barrie, IISS senior fellow for military aerospace; Zuzanna Gwadera, IISS research assistant; Timothy Wright, IISS research associate for defense and military analysis; and Ben Schreer, executive director of IISS Europe https://www.iiss.org/events/2024/12/europes-missile-renaissance 10 a.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “The Arms Trade Treaty at 10,” with Jennifer Cavenagh, Australian deputy permanent representative to the Conference on Disarmament; Daniel Lee, head of the UK Multilateral and Humanitarian Arms Control Counter Proliferation and Arms Control Center; Carina Solmirano, head of the ATT Secretariat; and Roberto Dondisch, lecturer at the University of Washington https://www.stimson.org/event/the-arms-trade-treaty-at-10/ 11 a.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Strategic Shifts: Insights from the Commission on the National Defense,” with former Rep. Jane Harman (D-CA), chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy; and Eric Edelman, vice chair of the Commission on the National Defense Strategy https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/strategic-shifts-insights 2 p.m. Vilnius, Lithuania — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The Future of Transatlantic Relations,” as part of Central Europe Week. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/2024-central-europe-week 3 p.m. — Brennan Center for Justice virtual discussion: “Analyzing Trump Plan to Invoke the Alien Enemies Act,” with Ilya Somin, professor of law at the George Mason University; Karen Ebel, president at the German American Internee Coalition; Rita Fernandez, director of UnidosUS Immigration Policy Project; Katherine Yon Ebright, counsel at the Brennan Center Liberty and National Security Program; and Wilfred Codrington III, professor of constitutional law at the Benjamin Cardozo School of Law and fellow at the Brennan Center https://www.brennancenter.org/events/analyzing-trumps-plan-invoke-alien-enemies-act WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 11 8:30 a.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council conference: "The future of U.S. counterterrorism policy," with State Department Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger Carstens; former CIA Director Michael Hayden; former Defense Undersecretary for Intelligence Michael Vickers; and former UN Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan Peter Galbraith https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-future-of-us-counterterrorism-policy/ 9 a.m. — Brookings Institution Center on the U.S. and Europ virtual discussion: “Relations with Turkey Under Trump 2.0,” with Evan Balta, professor of comparative politics and international politics at Ozyegin University; Nicholas Danforth, senior non-resident fellow at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy and editor of War on the Rocks; Rich Outzen, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; and Ash Aydintasbas, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution Foreign Policy Center on the U.S. and Europe and the Brookings Institution Turkey Project https://www.brookings.edu/events/relations-with-turkey-under-trump-2-0/ 12 p.m. 55 13th St. NW — Washington Space Business Roundtable discussion: achieving U.S. security in the space domain,” with Maj. Gen. Steven Whitney, director of staff at U.S. Space Force https://wsbr.org/event/wsbr-december-luncheon THURSDAY | DECEMBER 12 9:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Accelerating Replicator and Fielding Technologies for Today Fight,” with Aditi Kumar, deputy director of the Defense Department Defense Innovation Unit https://www.hudson.org/events/accelerating-replicator-fielding 9:30 a.m. — Asia Society Policy Institute virtual discussion: “Trump Second Act: What It Means for Asia and Pakistan,” with former Pakistani Ambassador to the U.S. Maleeha Lodhi; Kamran Yousaf, host of “The Review on Express News”; Daniel Russel, ASPI vice president of international security and diplomacy; and Farwa Aamer, ASPI director of South Asia Initiatives https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/events/trumps-second-act 9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What Happened in South Korea?” with Michelle Ye Hee Lee, Washington Post Tokyo bureau chief; Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chair; Sydney Seiler, CSIS nonresident senior adviser; and Mark Lippert, CSIS nonresident senior adviser https://www.csis.org/events/what-happened-south-korea-capital-cable-102 10:30 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Ukraine Security, Europe Stability” as part of Central Europe Week,” with Tomas Kopecny, Czech Republic government envoy for the reconstruction of Ukraine; Mykola Bielieskov, research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies; and former Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/2024-central-europe-week/ FRIDAY | DECEMBER 13 8 a.m. — 2800 South Potomac Ave., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association 2024 Air Force IT Day, with Venice Goodwine, CIO of the Department of the Air Force; and Maj. Gen. Jeth Rey, director of network C4 services and integration at the Army https://afceanova.swoogo.com/AirForceITDay2024 9 a.m. — The National Mall — Events DC “Patriot Games” event, a competition between Army Cadets and Navy Midshipmen with the winner receiving a trophy to be presented on the field during Saturday's Army-Navy Game https://eventsdc.com/americas-game | | | | "You know the people that have been treated very unfairly are the people that have been on line for ten years to come into the country. And we're going to make it very easy for people to come in, in terms of they have to pass the test. They have to be able to tell you what the Statue of Liberty is. They have to tell you a little bit about our country. They have to love our country. They can't come out of prisons. We don't want people that are in for murder." | | President-elect Donald Trump, in NBC interview, saying while he will deport some immigrants in the country illegally he will welcome others |
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