| CHINA MILITARY POWER REPORT: There's a lot to unpack in this year's congressionally mandated annual report, Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China, commonly known simply as the China Military Power Report. After its release Wednesday, many of the initial headlines focused on China's dramatic expansion of its nuclear arsenal. "That focus is certainly very understandable, but we also talk in the report about not just the expansion in numbers but also the increase in quality," Michael Chase, deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, said at a CSIS event. "We talk about the growing technological sophistication, the increasing diversity of China's nuclear arsenal." "The PLA [People Liberation Army] seeks a larger and more diverse nuclear force, comprised of systems ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles to ICBMs with multi-megaton yields to provide it multiple options on the escalation ladder," the report says, noting China is on a fast track to "expand its nuclear forces rapidly." "DOD estimates the PRC has surpassed 600 operational nuclear warheads in its stockpile as of mid-2024 and will have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, much of which will be deployed at higher readiness levels," the report states in the section on China's nuclear capabilities. "What we're tracking in recent years here also is increasing diversity in capabilities like precision strike capable missiles with lower-yield nuclear warheads, in addition to the other services getting into the nuclear deterrence and strike mission," Chase said. "I think it raises a lot of concerns about strategic stability, and particularly because we have urged them to be more transparent and more forthcoming and engage in more dialogue on these issues and they've been extremely reluctant to do that." TAIWAN IN CROSSHAIRS: Another big question addressed by the report is whether China's military is still on track to fulfil President Xi Jinping's mandate to be ready by 2027 to take control of Taiwan by force if necessary. "Xi continued to reaffirm his commitment to the PLA's 2027 milestone for modernization, which, if realized could give the PLA the capacity to be a more credible military tool for the Chinese Communist Party's Taiwan unification efforts," a senior Pentagon official told reporters earlier this week, while noting that widespread corruption in the Chinese military was slowing progress. "The substantial problems they have with corruption that have yet to be resolved certainly could slow them down on the path toward the 2027 capabilities development milestone," the official said. "Although Beijing reaffirms that 'peaceful reunification' is its preferred course of action, the PRC has never renounced the use of force and continues to signal its willingness to use military force against Taiwan," the report states. "The PLA has a range of options to coerce Taipei based on its increasing capabilities in multiple domains. For example, the PRC could signal its readiness to use force or conduct punitive actions against Taiwan. The PLA could conduct a range of cyberspace, blockade, and kinetic campaigns designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification or compel Taiwan's leadership to the negotiation table on the PRC's terms." Ominously, in another section, the report suggests China might resort to the use of nuclear weapons if its attempt to take Taiwan by force were to fail, despite its declared "no-first-use" policy. "Beijing probably would consider nuclear first use if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan gravely threatened CCP regime survival." CHINA'S ACHILLES' HEEL: ENERGY AND CORRUPTION: This year's China report includes a special section on the serious problem that Xi Jinping faces with a "wave of corruption-related investigations" that resulted in the removal of "at least 15 high-ranking military officers and defense industry executives" between July and December 2023. "The extent of the current wave of corruption cases, touching every service in the PLA, may have shaken Beijing's confidence in high-ranking PLA officials because rooting out corruption in the military had been a major focus for Xi since he became [Central Military Commission] chairman in 2012." This year China's new military leaders vowed to crack down on "fake combat capabilities," which the report suggests may refer to weapons procurement-related corruption. The investigations are "reflective of a serious concern that this is having serious problems," Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, said during the CSIS discussion. "I don't think this is just, hey, some guys are taking some money and putting it in their pocket … Beyond questions of are their missiles going to fly or whatnot, I think there are questions about the overall effect on the PLA." The other vulnerabilities cited by the report is China's reliance on outside sources of energy, which could be subject to a blockade by the U.S. and its allies in the event of war. "The main challenge that the PRC would face in the event of a prolonged military conflict in the Western Pacific would likely be meeting the hydrocarbon demand for its civilian and industrial population. If a military conflict consisted of a naval blockade, the PRC would be cut off from a significant amount of its hydrocarbon imports," the report says. "As far as I can tell, the PRC has no answer to that at this point. And that's significant," Ratner said. "And one of the reasons why we have some confidence as we say that we believe that an invasion is neither imminent nor inevitable, is that we believe deterrence is real, deterrence is strong." TRUMP TO INHERIT A PENTAGON BUDGET REPUBLICANS WORRY IS NOT UP TO THE TASK OF DETERRING CHINA Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie (@chriswtremo). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will be on Christmas break from Monday, Dec. 23 through Wednesday, Jan. 1. HAPPENING TODAY: CHAOS ON CAPITOL HILL: This time 24 hours ago, it seemed that a last-ditch stopgap funding measure that had a little something for everyone — including a pay raise for members of Congress, a football stadium for Washington, a new bridge for Maryland, $100 billion in disaster relief, and another $10 billion thrown in for farmers — was cruising to passage in time for lawmaker to make it home in plenty of time for Christmas. Then, President-elect Donald Trump weighed in with his demands. "Republicans want to support our farmers, pay for disaster relief, and set our country up for success in 2025. The only way to do that is with a temporary funding bill WITHOUT DEMOCRAT GIVEAWAYS combined with an increase in the debt ceiling. Anything else is a betrayal of our country," he said in a joint statement with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance. "Republicans must GET SMART and TOUGH. If Democrats threaten to shut down the government unless we give them everything they want, then CALL THEIR BLUFF. It is Schumer and Biden who are holding up aid to our farmers and disaster relief," he posted on Truth Social. "THIS CHAOS WOULD NOT BE HAPPENING IF WE HAD A REAL PRESIDENT. WE WILL IN 32 DAYS!" TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS LASH OUT AGAINST MIKE JOHNSON'S SPENDING PLAN, PUTTING CONGRESS CLOSER TO SHUTDOWN SHUTDOWN NOW LIKELY: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) had little choice but to pull the compromise bill that has been carefully negotiated over the past week to win the votes of Democrats, who are needed for passage because so many members of Johnson's Republican caucus are just as unhappy with the extras larded onto the bill as Trump, and his unofficial adviser Elon Musk. However, with tomorrow night's deadline, there's little time to rewrite the measure, mainly because Democrats are in no mood to accommodate Trump's eleventh-hour demands. "House Republicans have been ordered to shut down the government and hurt everyday Americans all across this country," Democratic leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said in a brief statement, blaming Republicans for "unilaterally decided to break a bipartisan agreement." "House Republicans will now own any harm that is visited upon the American people that results from a government shutdown or worse," Jeffries said. "An agreement is an agreement. It was bipartisan, and there was nothing more to say." HOUSE DEMOCRATS PLACE BLAME ON REPUBLICANS IF GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ENSUES WHAT WILL JOHNSON DO? Johnson, whose speakership now appears in jeopardy, has no good options. The least worst might be to offer a "clean" continuing resolution stripped of all the extras, including the much-needed disaster and farm aid, and maybe take it up again in January when the new Congress is sworn in. There are two problems with that plan. First, Democrats, furious that the Republicans reneged on their deal, are likely to vote no. Second, Trump has also inveighed against the idea and is threatening to "primary" any Republican who votes for it. "If Republicans try to pass a clean Continuing Resolution without all of the Democrat 'bells and whistles' that will be so destructive to our Country, all it will do, after January 20th, is bring the mess of the Debt Limit into the Trump Administration, rather than allowing it to take place in the Biden Administration," Trump posted on Truth Social. "Any Republican that would be so stupid as to do this should, and will, be Primaried. Everything should be done, and fully negotiated, prior to my taking Office on January 20th, 2025." Stay tuned. SENATE PASSES NDAA, SENDING ANNUAL DEFENSE BILL TO BIDEN'S DESK IN NICK OF TIME A SOBERING UKRAINE ASSESSMENT: The Pentagon this week gave reporters a rare look at how the U.S. military sees the current battlefield situation In Ukraine, with a briefing from two officials, one a military officer, who was briefed on background. The picture was mixed, with a senior military official conceding that Russian forces, with the help of North Korean troops, had succeeded in retaking about 40% of the Russian territory lost to a Ukrainian surprise attack in August. "The Russian counteroffensive has caused the Ukrainians to cede some of the territory that they had back in Kursk back to the Russian forces," the official said, "It has been a significant loss," he added while noting gains have come at a heavy cost, including the loss hundreds of North Korean troops. "They are taking casualties. We think now, based on the latest understanding that we have as of this afternoon, that we're looking at several hundred casualties. And just a reminder, that would include everything from light wounds up to being KIA [Killed in Action]." The heaviest fighting is on the eastern front, centered on the strategic objectives of Donetsk and Pokrovsk. "This appears to remain Russia's main effort, and they continue to make incremental progress toward Pokrovsk," the official said. "In general, most of their maneuver has been to the south of the city on some fairly open terrain, and the Ukrainians have been ceding some of that terrain and falling back to more defensible positions." Again, the cost has been high, and the progress is slow. "While the Russian soldiers have made significant progress, when looked at over a long time, day to day, it's very short amounts of progress," the official said. "And as the Ukrainians get to more defensible positions, we think they'll be able to shore up the defenses and last for some amount of time defending Pokrovsk, depending on how events on the battlefield play out." Casualties are almost always higher for the attacking force than for the defenders, and the U.S. says Russia continues to lose about 1,200 either killed or wounded a day. "Sometimes it's a little bit more, sometimes a little bit less. They do continue to regenerate. I don't think that can last forever, though." "It’s inevitable, quite frankly, that if they continue to sustain that level of casualty, that eventually, they’d have to look at another mobilization, which obviously would be a large political decision for them within their system." CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER THE RUNDOWN: Washington Examiner: Senate passes NDAA, sending annual defense bill to Biden's desk in nick of time Washington Examiner: Rand Paul blocks Schumer bill on mystery drone detection Washington Examiner: Trump and Republicans lash out against Mike Johnson's spending plan, putting Congress closer to shutdown Washington Examiner: House Democrats place blame on Republicans if government shutdown ensues Washington Examiner: Musk and Ramaswamy take aim at spending provision giving 'censorship' office lifeline Washington Examiner: Musk's Alleged Russia Contacts Worry US Air Force Chief Kendall Washington Examiner: James Comer predicts Mike Johnson will remain speaker despite in-party resistance Washington Examiner: Republicans float road map to enact Trump agenda in next Congress Washington Examiner: Border czar Tom Homan predicts 'collateral arrests' from Trump mass deportation plan Washington Examiner: Israel keeps control of Syrian border territory seized during government collapse Washington Examiner: US transfers three Guantanamo detainees as 9/11 plea deals set to play out Washington Examiner: Kyrsten Sinema pushes for Senate to preserve filibuster during farewell speech Washington Examiner: Missing 'radioactive material' mayor hinted drones were 'sniffing' for is standard medical equipment Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: The drone problem is out of control AP: Trump brings chaos back to Washington by attempting to kill bipartisan budget deal with Musk's help New York Times: Elon Musk and SpaceX Face Federal Reviews After Violations of Security Reporting Rules Kyiv Independent: Zelensky, NATO Chief Rutte Discuss Air Defense, ‘Reliability of Peace’ During Meeting in Brussels AP: As Russia's threat looms, guns and defense training surge in Finland Defense News: Special Ops Leaders Eye Alarming Levels of Adversary Collaboration AP: US sends home a man held 17 years without charge at Guantanamo Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Pentagon Report: China Expanding Military Reach to Project Power Around the Globe Air & Space Forces Magazine: Pentagon Says Chinese Air Force Nipping at USAF's Heels, but Not Yet a Match Breaking Defense: Navy Picks Northrop to Deliver Nuclear Command TACAMO Aircraft SpaceNews: US Space Force to Test Laser Communications on a GPS Satellite Air & Space Forces Magazine: Big To-Do List in 2025 for Space Force Defense One: Extra Parts, People Powered F-35 Readiness on Latest Pacific Deployment Military.com: DC Air National Guard Will Lose Fighter Jet Squadron to Maryland as Part of Government Funding Deal Task & Purpose: To Save a Team of Rangers Under Fire, This Pilot Dropped Every Bomb from Two Different F-16s THE CALENDAR: THURSDAY | DECEMBER 19 9:30 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum: "Building the Post-Assad Syria: How to Ensure the Process Reflects the Will of the People," with Farouq Habib, deputy general manager of the White Helmets; Rafif Jouejati, co-founder and director of the Foundation to Restore Equality and Education in Syria; Mahmoud Meslat, co-chair of the Syrian Democratic Council; and Ibrahim Al-Assil, adjunct professor at George Washington University https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register 10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” virtual discussion with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/an-frank-kendall-24/ 10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of Democracy and Human Rights in American Foreign Policy, with Nicole Bibbins-Sedaca, interim president of Freedom House; and Daniel Twining, president of the International Republican Institute https://www.csis.org/events/future-democracy-and-human-rights-american-foreign-policy 11 a.m. 1747 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — National Council of Resistance of Iran-U.S. Representative Office news conference “to disclose new findings about the Iranian regime’s nuclear weaponization program.” https://www.eventbrite.com/e/press-conference 12 p.m. — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations virtual discussion: “Lebanon, Syria, and Israel in Context," with Walid Jumblatt, former leader of the Lebanese Progressive Socialist Party and commander of the Lebanese National Resistance Front https://www.youtube.com/watch 12:30 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Artificial Intelligence (AI), China and the Future," with former Google CEO Eric Schmidt https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live 12:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Putin Loses in Syria: Is Russia in Retreat?” with former U.S. Ambassador to Kuwait Lawrence Silverman, professor at Georgia Tech’s Sam Nunn School of International Affairs and former special adviser for Europe and Russia for then-Vice President Biden; Mark Katz, professor at George Mason University’s School of Policy and Government; Debra Cagan, senior adviser at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and Qutaiba Idlbi, resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/putin-loses-in-syria-is-russia-in-retreat | | | | "Hard to imagine anything more heartless than shutting down the government and leaving disaster victims out in the cold just days before Christmas. Absolutely outrageous this is even a possibility." | | Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) on increasing likelihood of a partial government shutdown midnight Friday. |
|
| | 
Comments
Post a Comment