Daily on Defense: Zelensky and Putin maneuver ahead of Trump’s return, success of Syrian rebels sparks concern, Biden travels to Africa

BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

ZELENSKY: NATO INVITE COULD END 'HOT PHASE' OF WAR: In a series of public appearances and interviews over the past few days, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appears to have accepted the reality that with the return of Donald Trump as president in seven weeks, he will be under increased pressure to find a way to end the war that is approaching the three-year mark.

In an interview with Britain's Sky News, Zelensky suggested the "hot phase" of the war could end in return for NATO membership, with the return of occupied territory to be resolved later by "diplomatic" means.

“If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control,” Zelensky told Sky News’s chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay. “We need to do it fast. And then on the territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can get them back in a diplomatic way.”

Zelensky proposed a limited NATO commitment that would cover only the parts of his country currently under Ukrainian control and that any ceasefire would have to include guarantees that Russian President Vladimir Putin "will not come back” to take more Ukrainian territory in the future.

UKRAINE STRUGGLING TO HOLD RUSSIAN LAND THAT COULD BECOME BARGAINING CHIP IN PEACE TALKS

WE HAVE TO FIND A 'NEW MODEL': It's the first time Zelensky has conceded a ceasefire deal could include Russia remaining in control of Ukrainian territory even temporarily, but in public remarks over the weekend, Zelensky insisted he is not giving up on eventually securing the return of all seized territory.

"It is important to understand that we will never accept Russian occupation of our lands. We will not admit these lands to be Russian. It is our land, our people, a temporarily occupied part of Ukraine," he said. "Undoubtedly, this will all return. It would be beneficial to return this with diplomatic paths to avoid casualties. I'm not sure Putin understands this."

Zelensky also seems to have accepted the reality that Trump holds the key to his country's fate. “We have to work with the new president," he told Sky News. “I want to work with him directly because there are different voices from people around him. And that’s why we need not to [allow] anybody around to destroy our communication."

"We have to try to find the new model," Zelensky said. "I want to share with him ideas, and I want to hear from him.”

PUTIN: RUSSIA ‘ENTITLED' TO STRIKE UKRAINE'S BACKERS: Facing massive losses on the battlefield — reported by the Ukrainian General Staff to total 200,000 dead and 500,000 wounded — Putin is again making veiled threats about the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons, underscored by his use of an experimental intermediate-range ballistic missile with multiple warheads dubbed "Oreshnik," which translates to "Hazel Tree."

The nuclear-capable missile, which had a payload of six warheads with 36 submunitions, was launched from Russia and traveled 500 miles to hit a Ukrainian munitions factory in Dnipro on Nov. 21, ostensibly in response to President Joe Biden's decision to lift restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied long-range weapons, including ATACMS, to enable Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia.

"That is a question for the West, whether they intend to persist with these actions. Are there risks involved in strikes on Russian territory? Undoubtedly," Putin said at a news conference in Kazakhstan last week. "These actions denote the direct involvement of Western nations in an armed conflict. How could it be perceived otherwise? If their experts are orchestrating flight plans, relaying intelligence to themselves, and coordinating strikes on targets within the Russian Federation, then, of course, such risks exist."

In a speech immediately after the Oreshnik missile strike, Putin made a more pointed warning that seemed to threaten the United States directly. "We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military facilities of those countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities, and in case of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and in mirror-like manner."

"We have always preferred and are ready now to resolve all disputes by peaceful means. But we are also ready for any turn of events," he said.

PUTIN TAKES CREDIT FOR 'NEW MISSILE' FIRED ON UKRAINE, THREATENS USE AGAINST US AND UK

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Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre

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HAPPENING TODAY: Incoming chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee Chuck Grassley (R-IA) is scheduled to meet in his Senate office at 11:30 a.m. with Pam Bondi, Trump’s nominee to be the U.S. attorney general.

ALSO TODAY: Biden makes good on his long-standing promise to visit Africa before he leaves office, departing today for Cabo Verde and Angola. "This is a historic trip. We are excited about it. It marks the first visit of a U.S. president to Africa in nearly a decade, since 2015. And also importantly, this is the first-ever visit by a sitting U.S. president to Angola," a senior administration official told reporters on Sunday.

Part of Biden's focus will be on blunting China's increasing influence in Africa, in which Beijing uses promises of economic investment to make countries beholden to it.

There is a "choice that is now available to countries throughout the region. Not looking at, 'Do I have to accept Chinese investment with low standards and child labor and corruption,' but, 'Do I have another offering to compare it to,'" a second official said. "This is what President Biden has wanted to transform our relationship in the region, is to offer a different — more investment but with higher standards."

US VIEWS SYRIA SITUATION WITH CONCERN: While many on social media were cheering the success of Syrian rebels in routing government forces of President Bashar Assad and capturing Aleppo, one of Syria's biggest cities, the Biden administration expressed concern that while the rebel advance is a setback for Assad's allies Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, the offensive is led by a group that the U.S. considers a terrorist group.

"All three of those players have been distracted and weakened by conflicts elsewhere. So, it’s no surprise that you see actors in Syria, including the rebels, try to take advantage of that. And that’s exactly what they’ve done over the last several days," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on NBC's Meet the Press. "Now, this rebel offensive is led by a group that the United States has designated as a terrorist entity. So, we have concerns, obviously, about that group."

"We are closely monitoring the situation in Syria and have been in contact over the last 48 hours with regional capitals," the White House said in a cautiously worded statement. "The Assad regime's ongoing refusal to engage in the political process outlined in UNSCR 2254, and its reliance on Russia and Iran, created the conditions now unfolding, including the collapse of Assad regime lines in northwest Syria," the statement said. "At the same time, the United States has nothing to do with this offensive, which is led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, a designated terrorist organization."

In the wake of the fall of Aleppo, Putin has sacked Lt. Gen. Sergei Kisel, commander of the Russian Force Grouping in Syria, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

In his first public comments, Assad said Syria will continue to "defend its stability and territorial integrity against terrorists and their supporters," according to a release by Syria's state news agency. Assad added that Syria will be able to defeat them no matter how much their attacks intensify.

The U.S. is calling for "de-escalation, protection of civilians and minority groups, and a serious and credible political process that can end this civil war once and for all with a political settlement," according to the White House statement.

MEANWHILE, IN THE GULF OF ADEN: The running battle with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels who control Yemen continues unabated. On Saturday, three U.S. warships shot down a variety of missiles and drones that were fired at commercial ships as they were transiting the Gulf of Aden.

The destroyers USS Stockdale and the USS O'Kane "successfully defeated a range of Houthi-launched weapons, including three anti-ship ballistic missiles, three one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems, and one anti-ship cruise missile," according to a statement from the U.S. Central Command.

"The destroyers were escorting three U.S. owned, operated, flagged merchant vessels and the reckless attacks resulted in no injuries and no damage to any vessels, civilian or U.S. naval," the statement said. "These actions reflect the ongoing commitment of CENTCOM forces to protect U.S. personnel, regional partners, and international shipping, against attacks by Iran-backed Houthis."

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THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: Trump picks Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg to serve as special envoy for Ukraine-Russia

Washington Examiner: Ukraine struggling to hold Russian land that could become bargaining chip in peace talks

Washington Examiner: Putin takes credit for 'new missile' fired on Ukraine, threatens use against US and UK

Washington Examiner: Russia sends record swarm of drones into Ukraine in single night, critically damaging power grid

Washington Examiner: US secures release of three Americans wrongfully detained in China

Washington Examiner: How the Israel-Hezbollah war will end

Washington Examiner: Biden sees 'window of opportunity' for Israel-Saudi normalization

Washington Examiner: Drones spotted near three bases in UK, US Air Force says

Washington Examiner: Russia provided North Korea with air defense systems, South Korea says

Washington Examiner: Biden's final push for Ukraine, throwing the kitchen sink

Washington Examiner: ICC struggles to project authority in wake of Netanyahu arrest warrant

Washington Examiner: France determines Netanyahu has 'immunities' from ICC prosecution

Washington Examiner: John Bolton doubts Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal will last

Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Space Command should stay in Colorado

Washington Examiner: The North Pole cold war: US and NATO bolstering national security in Arctic region

Washington Examiner: Angela Merkel trashes Trump as 'emotional' in memoir, saying reelection is a 'disappointment'

Washington Examiner: Police report reveals new details about Pete Hegseth assault claim

The New Yorker: Pete Hegseth's Secret History

New York Times: Pete Hegseth's Mother Accused Her Son of Mistreating Women for Years

AP: Putin Signs Off Record Russian Defense Spending as Top EU Officials Visit Kyiv

Wall Street Journal: Biden to Leave Trump with Billions for Ukraine Weapons

Breaking Defense: Swedish Gripen Jets Don't 'Make Sense' for Ukraine Yet, Dutch Defense Chief Says

Reuters: Turkey Scales Down $23B F-16 Jet Deal with US, Minister Says

Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Potent non-state enemies threaten weak governments

Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Intelligence community senses risk and reward under Trump

Air & Space Forces Magazine: GPS Without Space? DOD Looks to Quantum for an Answer

Defense One: Will Musk's 'Algorithm' Reduce Military Inefficiency—or Increase Risk?

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Musk Revives F-35 Criticism, but Could It Actually Lead to Cuts Under Trump?

The War Zone: Australian F-35 Tests Expeditionary Base Concept

Inside Defense: Defense Contractors Warned Against 'Headline Risk' and 'Sacrificial Lambs' amid Musk Tweets

Air & Space Forces Magazine: More Drones Spotted Over USAF Bases in UK

SpaceNews: Space Force Awards Raytheon $196.7 Million for Additional Work on GPS Ground Control System

Washington Times: Opinion: Time to Rebuild US Air Force

THE CALENDAR:

MONDAY | DECEMBER 2

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies discussion: “Russian Disinformation in the 21st Century,” with John McLeod Scarlett, chairman of SC Strategy and former chief of the British Intelligence Service; Sarah Oates, professor at the University of Maryland at College Park’s College of Journalism; Jill Dougherty, adjunct professor at Georgetown University; and Peter Pomerantsev, senior fellow at Johns Hopkins University’s SNF Agora Institute https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/russian-disinformation-21st-century

10 a.m. 37th and O Sts. NW — Georgetown University discussion: “Implications of the 2024 U.S. Election on U.S.-China Relations,” with Da Wei, professor at Tsinghua University School of Social Sciences' International Relations Department and director of Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy; Wu Xinbo, professor and dean of the Institute of International Studies and director of Fudan University’s Center for American Studies; Bilahari Kausikan, chairman of the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute; Dennis Wilder, senior fellow for the Initiative for U.S.-China Dialogue on Global Issues and assistant professor of the practice in Asian studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service; and Kristen Looney, associate professor of Asian studies and government at Georgetown University https://uschinadialogue.georgetown.edu/events

10 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research book discussion: The Troublemaker: How Jimmy Lai Became a Billionaire, Hong Kong’s Greatest Dissident, and China’s Most Feared Critic, with author Mark Clifford, president of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong Foundation https://www.aei.org/events/the-troublemaker

10 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum: “The Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire and U.S. Leadership: What Comes Next?” with Hanin Ghaddar, WINEP senior fellow; Matthew Levitt, WINEP fellow; David Schenker, WINEP senior fellow; former Israeli Brig. Gen. Assaf Orion, WINEP fellow https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register

10:30 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “The Implications of an Iranian Nuclear Bomb,” with former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss; Olli Heinonen, Stimson Center senior fellow; Andrea Stricker, Foundation for Defense of Democracies deputy director; Robert Peters, Heritage research fellow; and Nile Gardiner, director of the Heritage Center for Freedom https://www.heritage.org/defense/event/the-implications-iranian-nuclear-bomb

11:30 a.m. White House — First lady Jill Biden discussion with National Guard leadership and families as part of the Joining Forces Initiative.

1 p.m. 1777 F St. NW — Council on Foreign Relations discussion: “Ukraine’s ongoing war with Russia and the role of U.S. and NATO support,” with former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, chairman of the European Solidarity Party https://tinyurl.com/4mn6f2y5

2 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “The State of the Middle East,” with Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) https://www.hudson.org/events/state-middle-east

2 p.m. — General Dynamics Information Technology virtual discussion: “How to Prevail in an Age of Contested Logistics: A Dispatch from INDOPAC 2024,” with Lt. Col. Ricky McArthur, senior logistics officer at Special Operations Command Pacific; and Frank Harrar, director of General Dynamics Information Technology’s Business Development Defense Division https://events.govexec.com/how-to-prevail-in-an-age-of-contested-logistics

7 p.m. 901 Wharf St. SW — Politics and Prose Bookstore book discussion of Freedom with author former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former President Barack Obama http://www.politics-prose.com

TUESDAY | DECEMBER 3

4:30 a.m. — Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte press conference ahead of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, which begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday Livesteam at https://www.nato.int

8 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. — Association of the U.S. Army “AUSA Hot Topic" forum: "Land-Based Fires in Large Scale Combat Operations,” with Army Maj. Gen. Winston “Phil” Brooks, commanding general of the Fires Center of Excellence; and Army Maj. Gen. Brett Sylvia, commanding general of the 101st Division https://www.ausa.org/events/hot-topics/land-based-fires

10 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “How the Trump Administration Can Reform the Foreign Service,” with former Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Tibor Nagy, Texas Tech University professor; Drew Peterson, University of Pittsburgh adjunct professor; Simon Hankinson, Heritage Foundation senior research fellow; and Matthew Boyse, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute’s Center on Europe and Eurasia https://www.hudson.org/events/how-trump-administration-can-reform-foreign-service

2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies book discussion: Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine, with author Lucian Kim, former fellow at the International Crisis Group; and Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Center on the U.S. and Europe https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/book-talk-putins-revenge

3 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry L. Stimson Center discussion: “In Competition, Crisis, and Conflict: Building America’s Warfighting Navy,” with Adm. Lisa Franchetti, chief of naval operations; retired Adm. Michelle Howard, former commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe, U.S. Naval Forces Africa, and Allied Joint Force Command Naples; and Brian Finlay, president and CEO of the Stimson Center https://www.stimson.org/event/building-americas-warfighting-navy

3 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “Moldova’s Euro-Atlantic Future,” with Moldova Foreign Minister Mihai Popsoi; and Igor Grosu, president of the Moldovan Parliament https://www.hudson.org/events/moldovas-euro-atlantic-future

3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Protecting Intellectual Property for National Security,” with Rep. Nathaniel Moran (R-TX); and Andrei Iancu, CSIS senior adviser and former director of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office https://www.csis.org/events/protecting-intellectual-property

5 p.m. — Atlantic Council special panel discussion: “The Future of Ukraine,” with former Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba; former Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, senior vice president of global public policy at Boeing; Minna Alander, research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs; Assia Ivantcheva, senior director for Europe at the National Endowment for Democracy; Genevieve Zubrzycki, professor of sociology at the University of Michigan; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/special-pane

WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 4

10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Global Europe Program 2024 Ahtisaari Symposium: “Finland’s Decision to Join NATO,” with former Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/2024-ahtisaari-symposium

12:30 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “The State of Israel’s War Against the Resistance Axis,” with former Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, founder and chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum https://www.hudson.org/events/state-israels-war-against-resistance-axis

1 p.m. N St NW — Aspen Security Forum DC Edition half-day event with Stephen Hadley, former national security adviser; former Rep. Jane Harmon, chairwoman; Susan Rice, former national security adviser; Susan Glasser, staff writer at the New Yorker https://www.aspensecurityforum.org/2024-asf-dc

1:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Project Sapphire at 30: U.S.-Kazakh Cooperation to Reduce Nuclear Threats,” with Kazakhstan Ambassador to the U.S. Yerzhan Ashikbayev; Andy Weber, senior fellow at the Council on Strategic Risks; David Hoffman, author of The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race and its Dangerous Legacy; and Togzhan Kassenova, nonresident fellow at the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/11/project-sapphire-at-30

THURSDAY | DECEMBER 5

9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: "How the Global Strike Command is evolving in an era of peer competition,” with Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander of the Air Force Global Strike Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/an-gen-thomas-a-bussiere/

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Examining People’s Republic of China Activities in the Arctic,” with Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Arctic and Global Resilience Iris Ferguson; and Matthew Funaiole, vice president of iDeas Lab https://www.csis.org/events/examining-prc-activities-arctic

11 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Taiwan’s Security Needs for the Next U.S. Administration,” with Miles Yu, director of the Hudson Institute’s China Center; Jason Hsu, Hudson Institute visiting fellow; and Riley Walters, Hudson Institute senior fellow https://www.hudson.org/events/taiwans-security-needs

2:30 p.m. — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing: “The Role of Belarus in Russia’s Crimes,” with Matvei Kupreichyk, BELPOL public representative; acting Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis; and Kateryna Rashevska, legal expert at the Regional Center for Human Rights https://www.youtube.com/live/zv3sfwRbv98

4 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "Russo-Ukrainian war," with former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-conversation-with-former-president-of-ukraine

FRIDAY | DECEMBER 6

11:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution and the Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Where Are US-China Relations Headed?” with House Intelligence Committee ranking member Jim Himes (D-CT) https://www.brookings.edu/events/where-are-us-china-relations-headed

1:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Commanding the Alliance: Perspectives from SACEURs,” with retired Gen. Christopher Cavoli; retired Gen. Philip Breedlove; retired Gen. Wesley Clark; retired Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti; and former U.S. Ambassador to Hungary Colleen Bell https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/commanding-the-alliance3:30 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual discussion: “Airpower and the Indo-Pacific,” with Gen. Kevin Schneider, commander of Pacific Air Forces and air component commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event/an-gen-kevin-b-schneider-24/