Daily on Defense: S. Korea’s constitutional crisis, N. Korea’s hypersonic missile claim, House fast tracks immigration bill, Gitmo down to 15, casualties in ISIS battle

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BY JAMIE MCINTYRE

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BLINKEN IN SEOUL: 'OUR RELATIONSHIP IS BIGGER THAN ANY ONE LEADER':  In his fourth and final visit to South Korea as secretary of state, Antony Blinken arrived in Seoul amid a deepening political upheaval in the country and increasingly bellicose provocations from the North.

As the country's anti-corruption agency is attempting to arrest Yoon Suk Yeol — who was impeached last month for his attempt to impose martial law and is now holed up in a hillside compound with a contingent of presidential guards —  Blinken met with acting leader Choi Sang-mok and his foreign minister counterpart Cho Tae-yul and expressed confidence that South Korea's democracy is strong enough to survive the constitutional crisis.

"We had serious concerns about some of the actions that President Yoon took," Blinken said at a joint appearance with Cho. "At the same time, we have tremendous confidence in the resilience of South Korea's democracy, in the strength of its institutions, and in the efforts that it's making to work through those institutions, pursuant to the constitution and the rule of law, to resolve differences and to do so peacefully."

"Korea's democracy has been tested in recent weeks, just as Americans' democracy has faced challenges throughout our history. But you are responding by demonstrating your democratic resilience," Blinken said. "Our relationship is bigger than any one leader, any one government, any one party."

BLINKEN AFFIRMS US SUPPORT FOR SOUTH KOREA AS IMPEACHED YOON BUNKERS AGAINST ARREST

N. KOREA TESTS HYPERSONIC MISSILE: Blinken's visit coincided with the test firing of an intermediate-range missile that North Korea claimed was tipped with a new hypersonic warhead designed to hit remote targets in the Pacific.

"The current test-fire proved without doubt that we are steadily upgrading the powerful new-type weapon systems like the intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile to cope with different security threats posed by the hostile forces against our state at present," North Korean state media quoted leader Kim Jong Un as saying. "The development of the new-type hypersonic missile is aimed mainly at steadily putting the country's nuclear war deterrent on an advanced basis by placing the means of changing the war situation, a weapon system to which no one can respond."

"The hypersonic missile system will reliably contain any enemies in the Pacific region that can affect the security of our state," said Kim, who reportedly oversaw the Jan. 6 launch. "This is clearly a plan and effort for self-defense, not an offensive plan of action. South Korean military officials discounted the claim of a new hypersonic weapon as a bluster on the part of Pyongyang. "It is assessed that North Korea's claim of the flight distance and the second peak altitude is highly likely deception," Col. Lee Sung-jun, a spokesman for South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters at a briefing.

HELP FROM RUSSIA? One detail included in the North Korean report sparked questions about whether Russia was helping North Korea advance its missile technology in return for the 10,000 troops Kim Jong Un has provided Russia to fight in Ukraine.

"A new composite carbon fiber material was used in the manufacture of the engine body of the missile and a new comprehensive and effective method based on the already-accumulated technologies introduced in the flight and guidance control system," said the official Korean Central News Agency report. This could suggest North Korea may have benefited from technological assistance in developing the new missile.

"The DPRK [North Korea] is already receiving Russian military equipment and training," Blinken said. "Now we have reason to believe that Moscow intends to share advanced space and satellite technology with Pyongyang and that Putin may be close to reversing a decadeslong policy by Russia and accepting DPRK's nuclear weapons program."

At the same time, Blinken revealed that the U.S. assesses that in the last week of December, more than 1,000 North Korean troops were killed or wounded fighting Ukrainian forces who occupy part of the  Kursk region of Russia.

In a weekend interview with U.S. podcaster Lex Fridman, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky put the number of dead or wounded North Korean soldiers at roughly 3,800.

BLINKEN WARNS RUSSIA INTENDS TO SHARE ADVANCED SPACE TECHNOLOGY WITH NORTH KOREA

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie (@chriswtremo). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.

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HAPPENING TODAY: CONGRESS IS BACK: Both the House and Senate are back in session today, and as part of the House rules adopted for the 119th Congress, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has laid out an ambitious plan to fast-track 12 bills deemed to be "priority pieces of legislation," with the intent of getting them to President Donald Trump's desk shortly after he takes office.

One of the 12 expected to get a vote in the House this week is the Laken Riley Act, named for 22-year-old Laken Riley, an Augusta University nursing student who was killed last year by José Antonio Ibarra, a native of Venezuela who entered the country illegally, while on a morning run. The bill, which would require federal authorities to detain unauthorized immigrants who have been accused of theft, passed the House easily last March, 251-170, but died in the Democratic-controlled Senate. 

Johnson is working with the smallest majority in history: 217 Republicans to 215 Democrats.

BIDEN TO LEAVE HAVING FAILED TO GET PATHWAY TO CITIZENSHIP FOR MILLIONS OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS

GITMO: 800 U.S. TROOPS OVERSEE 15 PRISONERS: In a race to empty the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, the Biden Pentagon has completed a long-stalled plan to transfer 11 Yemeni prisoners who have never been charged with crimes, to Oman.

The Pentagon first notified Congress of the plan to repatriate the detainees to Oman more than a year ago. However, the requirements for the transfer were only recently met, according to a Pentagon release, which notes that with the departure of the Yemeni prisoners, only 15 detainees remain at Guantanamo Bay, including three more who are eligible for transfer.

While outgoing President Joe Biden will not be able to close Guantanamo as he hoped, he may have succeeded in making it economically unjustifiable given the enormous cost to house just over a dozen prisoners. The Guantanamo Bay facility, parts of which are badly in need of repairs, costs upward of $450 million a year to run, which made the per-prisoner cost roughly $11 million back when there were 40 prisoners held there. By comparison, a typical supermax prison in the U.S. costs $100,000 a year.

"The remaining 15 detainees are held in two prison buildings with cell space for about 250 prisoners," according to New York Times reporter Carol Rosenburg, who has covered Guantanamo since it opened with 20 prisoners in January of 2002. "At its peak, in 2003, the operation had about 660 prisoners and more than 2,000 troops and civilians commanded by a two-star general," she wrote. "The operation now has 800 troops and civilian contractors — 53 guards and other staff members for every detainee — and is run by a more junior officer, Col. Steven Kane."

Eight years ago, when Trump was about to begin his first term, I wrote about how Trump railed at the staggering cost of the Guantanamo facility and boasted on the campaign trail that he would cut the cost to peanuts. He will have another chance when he returns to the White House in two weeks.

FROM 2016: GUANTANAMO MAY BE TOO EXPENSIVE FOR TRUMP TO KEEP

FIREFIGHTS, AIRSTRIKES, CASUALTIES IN WEEKLONG BATTLE WITH ISIS: The U.S. Central Command revealed yesterday that U.S. and coalition forces engaged in a pitched battle with ISIS fighters who were holed up in caves in the Hamrin mountains of Iraq.

In the course of the operation, which lasted eight days, one coalition soldier was killed and two others wounded. There were no U.S. casualties.

"During the operations, ISIS fighters engaged Coalition forces on several occasions, resulting in the employment of Coalition air strikes, using F-16s, F-15s, and A-10s. The A-10s tasked to support ground forces in the area were successful in eliminating the ISIS fighters within a cave," CENTCOM said in a Jan. 6 release.

The effort began on Dec. 30 and ended on Jan. 6, and involved both U.S. and Iraqi forces. "Known ISIS locations" were targeted with "multiple strikes" over the eight-day period, according to CENTCOM. "The operations served to disrupt and degrade ISIS' ability to plan, organize, and conduct attacks against civilians in the region, as well as U.S. citizens, allies, and partners throughout the region and beyond."

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: Pentagon agrees to legal settlement with LGBT veterans separated under 'Don't ask, don't tell'

Washington Examiner: Israel warns Hezbollah ceasefire could collapse

Washington Examiner: Blinken warns Russia intends to share advanced space technology with North Korea

Washington Examiner: Blinken affirms US support for South Korea as impeached Yoon bunkers against arrest

Washington Examiner: Biden to leave having failed to get pathway to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrants

Washington Examiner: US expected to sell air missiles to Japan in $3 billion deal

Washington Examiner: Manning the ramparts: A weeklong series on national security

Washington Examiner: Opinion: The Pentagon's acquisition process is broken

New York Times: U.S. Envoy Says Israel Will Withdraw From Southern Lebanon

AP: Hurdles Remain as Israel and Hamas Once Again Inch Toward a Ceasefire Deal

Reuters: Battle Rages in Western Russia as Moscow Reports Gains in Ukraine

AP: Russia claims it captured another town in eastern Ukraine but Kyiv's troops say the fight continues

Wall Street Journal: Pentagon Labels More Chinese Companies as Military in Nature

Military.com: Trusted Traveler Program at Bases Across US Suspended Following Las Vegas, New Orleans Attacks

The Hill: GOP Homeland Security Chair: Drone Bill a Top Priority in Next Congress

Wall Street Journal: Can Boeing Be Fixed? Aerospace Leaders Offer a Repair Manual

Air & Space Forces Magazine: This Little-Known Air Force Team Flies Dangerously In the Name of Safety

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Has China's Secret H-20 Stealth Bomber Broken Cover?

The War Zone: Our Best Look So Far Inside Israel's Once Secretive 707 Tankers

DefenseScoop: Pentagon Awards Kratos Megadeal Worth Nearly $1.5B for New Hypersonic Testbed

Breaking Defense: Boeing Taps Dana Deasy, Former Top Pentagon Official, as CIO

Task & Purpose: VA Extends Education Benefits by a Year for More Than a Million Veterans

THE CALENDAR: 

TUESDAY | JANUARY 7

10 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group breakfast conversation with Jared Stout, chief government and external affairs officer, Axiom Space RSVP: [email protected] 

12 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion: “The Hidden Costs: Transparency and the U.S. Arms Trade,” with Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-TX); Annie Shiel, U.S. advocacy director at the Center for Civilians in Conflict; Elias Yousif, deputy director, Stimson Center Conventional Defense Program; and Rachel Stohl, director, Stimson Center Conventional Defense Program https://www.stimson.org/event/the-hidden-costs

2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of Irregular Warfare,” with Assistant Defense Secretary for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict Christopher Maier https://www.csis.org/events/future-irregular-warfare

12:45 p.m. — Special Air Mission 39 arrives at Joint Base Andrews bringing the remains of former President Jimmy Carter to Washington. Schedule of events:

  • 1:15 p.m. — Motorcade with Carter and his family departs Joint Base Andrews en route U.S. Navy Memorial.
  • 2 p.m. — Motorcade arrives in the U.S. Navy Memorial and Carter’s remains are transferred from the hearse to a horse-drawn caisson for a funeral procession to the U.S. Capitol. 
  • 2:15 p.m. — Funeral procession begins marching to the U.S. Capitol via Pennsylvania Ave.
  • 2:40 p.m. — The procession arrives at the U.S. Capitol, where members of Congress pay their respects, with remarks from the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader.
  • 3:45 p.m. — Carter begins lying in state in Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol, where the public can visit 7 p.m. to midnight https://jtfncr.mdw.army.mil/statefunerals/

1:30 p.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “NATO and U.S.-Turkey Defense Cooperation in a New Era,” including the launch of the fourth issue of the Defense Journal. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/report-launch-and-panel-nato-and-us-turkey

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 8

7 a.m. U.S. Capitol Rotunda — President Jimmy Carter lies in state for second day ahead of state funeral Jan. 9. https://jtfncr.mdw.army.mil/statefunerals/

9:15 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry L. Stimson Center discussion: “The U.S.-Japan Alliance for the Future,” with former Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara https://www.stimson.org/event/the-u-s-japan-alliance-for-the-future/

5:30 p.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion: “Russia’s Difficult Road to Freedom,” with Vladimir Kara-Murza, vice president of the Free Russia Foundation and former Russian opposition leader; and Leon Aron, AEI senior fellow https://www.aei.org/events/russias-difficult-road-to-freedom

THURSDAY | JANUARY 9 | FEDERAL HOLIDAY

9 a.m. — Remains of former President Jimmy Carter depart the U.S. Capitol for the hour-long 10 a.m. state funeral service at the Washington National Cathedral in northwest Washington, after which Carter’s family and his casket travel to Joint Base Andrews and where Special Air Mission 39 returns Carter to Georgia for interment https://jtfncr.mdw.army.mil/statefunerals/

9 a.m. —  Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “What do people in Taiwan and the United States think about Taiwan’s security situation?” with Lu-Huei Chen, research fellow and director at National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center; Nathan Batto, associate research fellow and professor at Academia Sinica’s Institute of Political Science; Craig Kafura, director of public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs; and Ryan Hass, director of the Brookings Institution’s China Center, senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution’s Center for Asia Policy Studies and China Center and chair in Taiwan Studies at the Brookings Institution https://www.brookings.edu/events/what-do-people-in-taiwan-and-the-united-states-think

FRIDAY | JANUARY 10

8:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “How will artificial intelligence impact security relations between the United States and China? U.S. and Chinese perspectives,” with Andrew Forrest, co-founder of the Minderoo Foundation; Qian Xiao, deputy director of the Tsinghua University Center for International Security and Strategy; Ting Dong, fellow at the Tsinghua University Center for International Security and Strategy; Chuanying Lu, nonresident fellow and professor at the Tsinghua University Center for International Security and Strategy and Tongji University; Jacquelyn Schneider, fellow and director of the Hoover Institution’s Hoover Wargaming and Crisis Simulation; Ryan Hass, director of the Brookings China Center; Colin Kahl, foreign policy scholar at the Brookings Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology; and Chris Meserole, former Brookings expert https://www.brookings.edu/events/how-will-artificial-intelligence-impact-security

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 15

7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. — Association of the U.S. Army day long Hot Topic discussion: "Connecting the Industrial Base to the Tactical Edge, with Lt. Gen. Chris Mohan, acting commander, U.S. Army Materiel Command; Vic Ramdass, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for industrial base policy; Liz Miranda, executive deputy to the commanding general, U.S. Army Material Command; Maj. Gen. Michael Lalor, commander, U.S. Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command; Brig. Gen. Ronnie Anderson, commander, Joint Munitions Command; and Rich Martin, executive director of supply chain management at Army Materiel Command https://www.ausa.org/events/hot-topic/connecting-industrial-base-tactical-edge

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
"​​Today I did what I have done my entire career, which is take seriously the oath that I have taken many times to support and defend the Constitution of the United States, which included today performing my constitutional duties to ensure that the people of America, the voters of America will have their votes counted, that those votes matter and that they will determine then the outcome of an election."
Vice President Kamala Harris, after presiding over a joint session of Congress Monday to confirm the votes of the Electoral College
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