| 'RUSSIAN OFFENSIVES HAVE SORT OF PETERED OUT': President Donald Trump is pursuing a quick peace deal to end the war in Ukraine based on the assumption the conflict is stalemated and both sides should be satisfied with Russia keeping 20% of the country for the sake of ending the mounting death toll of combatants and civilians. But when we heard yesterday from Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the U.S. European and supreme NATO commander, his assessment — based on the best U.S. intelligence — painted a more nuanced picture of where the war stands after three years of fighting. Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee Thursday, Cavoli, retiring this summer after 38 years in uniform, said that while "isolated pockets" of Russian troops seem highly skilled, overall, the quality of their ground forces "has been decreasing throughout the conflict." "On the Ukrainian side, we see sort of the opposite," Cavoli testified. "We see a military that started pretty much from an almost cold start … And they’ve evolved and developed very, very quickly." As Cavoli ran down what's known as the "FLOT," the front line of troops, he described a Ukrainian force that has largely dug into highly defensible positions while Russian troops are struggling to advance while suffering heavy casualties. "There is a sizable [Ukrainian] force holding a diminished but sizable chunk of ground inside Russia in Kursk Oblast right now. And they’re holding on very good defensive terrain," Cavoli said. "This is where the Russians introduced North Korean troops to help push the Ukrainians back out. They set an original goal of the end of September to have the Ukrainians out of Kursk. The Ukrainians today are still in Kursk." In other areas, including the eastern cities of Toretsk and Pokrovsk, "Russian offensives have sort of petered out," Cavoli said. "They have failed to gain ground in the last couple of weeks. In fact, the Ukrainians have taken a little bit of ground back from them." RUSSIANS SUFFERING 'A PAUCITY OF ARMORED VEHICLES': Despite their dogged determination and ingenious adaptation of new technologies and novel warfighting tactics, the Ukrainian army continues to be underestimated. "I did not anticipate the war to go this long, and I did not anticipate Ukraine to be able to destroy so much of Russia’s warfighting capability," Cavoli admitted. And it's taught a thing or two to the U.S. military. "We have learned an awful lot," Cavoli said, including the obvious lesson that large tank-on-tank battles are a relic of times past. "Thousands of tanks destroyed on both sides. The Russians have lost more than 4,000 tanks, which is the inventory almost of the United States Tank Corps." "The Russians seem to be suffering from a paucity of armored vehicles and a lack of manpower," Cavoli said. "The Ukrainians on their side have assumed very strong defensive positions, well dug in, and appear to have solved some of their manpower problems that were so acute last autumn." While the war is often described as a World War I-style trench warfare, the meatgrinder assaults reminiscent of that war, which introduced machine guns and poison gas to the battlefield, the reality is the war is more a duel of long-range weapons, "the Russians largely with cruise missiles and glide bombs and the Ukrainians are relying mainly on one-way attack drones as well as some indigenously produced cruise missile systems." Two things are keeping Ukraine in the fight, both primarily supposed by the United States: air defense munitions and intelligence. Cutting those off would hand victory to Russia. "The things that shoot down the ballistic missiles and the long-range attack missiles that the Russians throw at them almost daily, that is mainly supplied by the United States," Cavoli said. "If the Ukrainians were not able to receive intelligence from us, they would struggle to target, especially in depth, operational level targets such as command post, logistics areas." REED: 'RUSSIA IS NOT IN A STRONG POSITION': Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), the top Democrat on the committee, argued the battlefield situation report would suggest now is not the time to be making concessions to Russian President Vladimir Putin. "The Trump administration has begun negotiating with Vladimir Putin but has surrendered much of our strongest leverage for nothing in return," Reed said. "I would argue that there is never a time to appease Putin but it is certainly not now. The Russians do not seem interested in actually negotiating or ending this war, and the Ukrainians should not be forced to make a deal that disadvantages them." "I would point out that Russia is not in a strong position. Putin has sustained staggering costs in Ukraine, including more than 200,000 soldiers killed and hundreds of billions of dollars of military equipment and weapons destroyed. In addition, Russia’s closest ally in the war, Iran, is weaker than it has been in decades due to recent Israeli and U.S. actions," Reed said. "In contrast, the Ukrainian military continues to hold its ground and to display impressive innovation on the battlefield, and the Ukrainian people remain resolute in the face of daily Russian brutality." "The war in Ukraine has exposed the Russian Army’s weakness, but it also has shown that Russia can adapt to changing circumstances and can endure heavy costs," Committee Chairman Roger Wicker (R-MS) said in his opening statement. "The Russian industrial base, aided by China, North Korea and Iran, has demonstrated its ability to sustain Putin’s Army. Russia would likely use any pause in fighting to reconstitute its military." "I say all this to make a simple point: We cannot wish away the Russian threat," Wicker said. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Good Friday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre. CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE DID LAURA LOOMER JUST GET A FOUR-STAR FIRED? Washington was buzzing yesterday with the news that some members of the National Security Council were summarily fired after right-wing activist Laura Loomer paid a visit to President Donald Trump in the White House. The New York Times reported that Gen. Timothy Haugh, who is dual-hatted as head of the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command, was the biggest head to roll. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump praised Loomer as someone he "sometimes" listens to but denied she was why Haugh was removed from his post. "Laura Loomer is a great patriot. She's a very strong person," Trump said. "She makes recommendations on names and people, and sometimes I listen to those recommendations like I do with everybody … I listen to everybody, and then I make a decision." Trump insisted Loomer only recommended people for administrative jobs and did not call for anyone's firing. Asked directly if Lomeer, with the ouster of NSC aides, Trump said 'No." "We're always going to let go of people," the president said. "People we don't like or people that take advantage of or people that may have loyalties to someone else." TRUMP FIRES NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL STAFFERS AFTER LAURA LOOMER RAISES LOYALTY CONCERNS LOOMER: HAUGH AND HIS DEPUTY 'HAVE BEEN DISLOYAL': In a post on X after midnight, Loomer appeared to take credit for the firings despite the president's denial. "NSA Director Tim Haugh and his deputy Wendy Noble have been disloyal to President Trump. That is why they have been fired," Loomer said. "General Haugh had no place serving in the Trump admin given the fact that he was HAND PICKED by General Milley, who was accused of committing treason by President Trump. Why would we want an NSA Director who was referred to Biden after being hand selected by Milley, who told China he would side with them over Trump!?!?" "Why would we want Milley's hand picked choice for NSA DIRECTOR? We do not! And he was referred for firing," she said in the post. "Of course Wendy Nobel was referred for firing. She is a Trump hater who was nominated by JOE BIDEN.""Noble is a protege of Trump hater James Clapper, who frankly, belongs in prison. Why would we want Clapper's protege at the NSA?" OUTRAGE! The firing of Haugh sparked immediate outrage from Democrats in Congress. "General Haugh has served our country in uniform, with honor and distinction, for more than 30 years. At a time when the United States is facing unprecedented cyber threats, as the Salt Typhoon cyberattack from China has so clearly underscored, how does firing him make Americans any safer?" said Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), vice chairman of the Intelligence Committee. "It is astonishing, too, that President Trump would fire the nonpartisan, experienced leader of the National Security Agency while still failing to hold any member of his team accountable for leaking classified information on a commercial messaging app – even as he apparently takes staffing direction on national security from a discredited conspiracy theorist in the Oval Office." HAPPENING TODAY: NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary in various venues last year as it entered its 75th year, but today marks its actual birthday. "Since its creation on 4 April 1949, the transatlantic alliance has grown from 12 founding members to 32 member countries," NATO says on its website, describing the organization as "a community of allies bound together by common values of democracy, individual liberty, human rights and the rule of law." As NATO wrapped up a meeting of foreign ministers, many of those allies had grave doubts about whether the alliance, formed largely to defend against the former Soviet Union, would continue to thrive as the Trump administration continues to signal it’s pulling back from being the backbone of NATO and may no longer want to lead it. "NATO should be led by the United States, but Europe should shoulder most of the military burden," Sen. Roger Wicker said at yesterday's Armed Services Committee hearing. "To build NATO, we must maintain our current posture, which will serve as a bridge to the planned buildup of combat power by our European NATO allies." "After three years of war, we probably should make some posture adjustments, including moving forces east. But we must maintain a strong military posture in Europe overall. Failing to do so risks tempting Russian adventurism before our European allies have been able to ramp up their forces fully, and their capabilities," Wicker said. WHITHER NATO? WITH TRUMP LAYING THE GROUNDWORK TO PULL BACK, CAN NATO SURVIVE? RUBIO: 'WE'RE GOING TO REMAIN IN NATO': As America's diplomat, one of Marco Rubio's objectives at his first foreign ministers meeting was to reassure nervous allies that despite reports in the American media that the Pentagon is considering giving up the military command over the alliance and is warning it may not have troops to spare for a European conflict, the U.S. isn't going anywhere. "The United States is in NATO. We are active. As we speak right now, the United States is as active in NATO as it has ever been," Rubio said, standing by Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels. "And some of this hysteria and hyperbole that I see in the global media and some domestic media in the United States about NATO is unwarranted." "President Trump has made clear he supports NATO. We’re going to remain in NATO … But we want NATO to be stronger. We want NATO to be more viable," Rubio said. "He’s not against NATO. He is against a NATO that does not have the capability that it needs to fulfill the obligations that the treaty imposes upon each and every member state." In his remarks, Rubio committed the U.S. to meeting the same 5% of GDP spending goal Trump is demanding of other allies. "We do want to leave here with an understanding that we are on a pathway, a realistic pathway, to every single one of the members committing and fulfilling a promise to reach up to 5 percent in spending. That includes the United States — will have to increase its percentage." According to calculations from the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. a 5% floor on military spending (up from 3.4% of GDP) would balloon the annual U.S. defense budget from $886 billion to a whopping $1.45 trillion, an increase of more than $550 billion or roughly 60%. "The pathway has to be real," Rubio warned the allies. "This is a hard truth but it is a basic one that needs to be said now in order for us to build the kind of NATO that has the capability to defend the territories of our nation-states and deter any action that would be aggressive against any one of us." RUBIO: FEAR OF US LEAVING NATO IS 'HYSTERIA,' AFFIRMS 'HARD POWER IS STILL NECESSARY' DENMARK TO RUBIO: STOP WITH THE GREENLAND NONSENSE: With President Trump fixated on adding Greenland to America's territorial possession, Rubio was compelled to have a one-on-one meeting with his Danish counterpart, who, by all accounts, delivered a tongue-lashing to Rubio in a closed-door meeting. An anodyne readout from the State Department described the meeting by employing the standard diplomatic niceties, saying the two men "reaffirmed the strong relationship" between their countries and discussed "threats to the Alliance, including those posed by Russia and China." No mention of Greenland. But after the meeting, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen didn't hold back. "I took the opportunity to very strongly object to claims and presidential statements of a vision of acquiring Greenland," Rasmussen told reporters. "It has amounted to a situation where it’s not within the limits of international law. It’s a matter of situation where — I only can describe it as an attack on Danish, the sovereignty of the kingdom of Denmark. And I made that very, very clear." Denmark remained astounded that the United States won't drop the matter, considering Denmark is open to having a much larger U.S. military presence on the self-governing Arctic island. "Every Danish and Greenlandic leader at this point, and they’ve had to say it over and over again, has said that Greenland is not for sale and will not become part of the United States. I don’t know how many times the Trump administration needs to hear this before they can stop this truly bizarre policy that they continue to just sort of beat over the heads of the Danes and the Greenlanders," Rufus Gifford, former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark, said on CNN. "If the vice president and his wife wanted to go to Nuuk last week and bring a trade delegation of American business to Nuuk and discuss how we can invest more in Greenland and partner together, they would have been met with the red carpet that they wanted," Gifford said. "The Greenlanders and the Danes would love nothing more than for American investment in Greenland." "But what they have done is thumb the Danes and the Greenlanders in the eye time after time after time. And now you’re seeing both the Danes and the Greenlanders put their foot down and call it for what it is, which is, you know, the United States disrespecting them, disrespecting a great ally who has been with us …every step of the way for the last 80 years." CAVOLI: GIVING UP NATO COMMAND 'PROBLEMATIC': Asked yesterday about those reports that the Pentagon is considering dropping the requirement that NATO's senior military officer — Supreme Allied Commander Europe, or SACEUR — be an American general or admiral, outgoing SACEUR Gen. Christopher Cavoli said, "From a Military perspective [that would be] problematic." While making clear he was not weighing in on what would be a policy decision that would be the prerogative of his civilian bosses, Cavoli noted that as an American commander, he is the one who controls the nuclear weapons that are in the arsenals of allies Britain and France. "The United States guarantees, has always offered a certain amount of nuclear force to NATO to be employed by SACEUR," he testified. "We have some nuclear weapons that, in a conflict, upon the agreement of the United States and the rest of the nations, would be turned over to SACEUR to be delivered by a variety of nations who are involved in this program, all of them NATO nations, that all happens under the command and control of SACEUR." "Basically, as the American commander, have those weapons in my possession and at the time of need," Cavoli said. "I would pass them to myself as the Supreme Allied Commander to employ in accordance with the 32 nations … If SACEUR were not an American officer, we would have to find some other way to do that." KREPINEVICH ON 'THE PENTAGON'S ENDANGERED BRAIN TRUST': As anyone who has covered national security in the past few decades knows, Andrew Krepinevich, currently a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, is one of the most respected defense policy analysts of our time. He's also a former member of the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment, a sort of in-house think tank with a long track record of providing — in Krepinevich's words — "crucial and often contrarian analysis that has reshaped U.S. strategic thinking." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth closed the office in order to create something that is more aligned with the Trump agenda, but in an essay in Foreign Affairs, Krepinevich makes the case that shutting down ONA is a mistake that is easy to make, but hard to fix. Established after the Cold War, the ONA's were remarkably prescient, anticipating by several decades for example, the coming great power competition with China's and its growing military challenge to the United States, but as Krepinevich writes. "Hegseth ordered the 'disestablishment' of ONA and directed Pentagon managers to reassign the office's employees elsewhere. He also canceled all existing ONA research contracts. In announcing the closure, Hegseth also requested that the deputy secretary of defense devise a plan for 'rebuilding' the office in a different form, to be structured 'consistent with' the secretary's priorities." "But the message seems clear: ONA will cease to exist as an autonomous center for strategic thinking that has so often contributed crucial and sometimes paradigm-shifting insights by challenging conventional wisdom. As a review of the office's extraordinary history makes plain, this decision needs to be urgently revisited." Here is a gift link to the essay. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER THE RUNDOWN: Washington Examiner: Trump's tariffs will empower China and impoverish America Washington Examiner: China 'trying to replicate' scrapped USAID programs in Africa, AFRICOM commander warns Washington Examiner: With Trump laying the groundwork to pull back, can NATO survive? Washington Examiner: Pentagon inspector general launches investigation into Hegseth's Signal group chat use Washington Examiner: Rubio: Fear of US leaving NATO is 'hysteria,' affirms 'hard power is still necessary' Washington Examiner: ICE deports previously removed illegal immigrants with 'egregious' crime records Washington Examiner: Republicans weigh clawing back tariff authority from Trump Washington Examiner: Editorial: Congress must take back the tariff power Washington Examiner: RFK Jr. suggests 20% of HHS firings were mistakes and will be reinstated Washington Examiner: Trump fires National Security Council staffers after Laura Loomer concerns Washington Examiner: Judge weighs contempt over Trump administration’s Venezuelan deportations Washington Examiner: Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum says 'good relationship' with US spared country from reciprocal tariffs Washington Examiner: North Korea calls US-Japan missile deal 'warning signal' that adds 'strategic instability' to region New York Times: U.S. Strikes in Yemen Burning Through Munitions With Limited Success Breaking Defense: A Non-American as Supreme Allied Commander of NATO? That'd Be 'Problematic,' Cavoli Says SpaceNews: China Expands Counter-Space Capabilities, New Report Finds DefenseScoop: Congress' New Foreign Arms Sales Task Force Eyes Disruptive Reforms Defense News: Japan Develops New Missiles Designed to Repel an Invasion Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Focused on the Ground for Anti-Satellite Weapons Defense One: What Will Quantum Computing Actually Look Like? Military Times: Defense Officials Considering Cuts to Military Treatment Facilities Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Changes Rules for Pregnant Aircrew — Again Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air & Space Forces Magazine: First Mission-Ready Skyraider II Arrives at Air Force Special Operations Command Foreign Affairs: Opinion: Don't Gut the Office That Outfoxed the Soviets and Predicted China's Rise THE CALENDAR: FRIDAY | APRIL 4 6:30 a.m. EST Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte holds a press conference at the conclusion of the meeting of NATO Defense Ministers https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events TUESDAY | APRIL 8 8:15 a.m.100 Westgate Cir., Annapolis, Maryland — American Bar Association 2025 Federal Procurement Institute, with David Norquist, president and CEO, National Defense Industrial Association https://events.americanbar.org/event 9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Bradley Hansell to be undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security; Earl Matthews to be Pentagon general counsel; Dale Marks to be assistant secretary of defense for energy, installations and environment; and Brandon Williams to be Energy undersecretary for nuclear security http://www.armed-services.senate.gov 2:30 p.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee hearing: “The U.S. Special Operations Command in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2026 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Colby Jenkins, performing the duties of the assistant Defense secretary for special operations and low-intensity conflict; and Army Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command http://www.armed-services.senate.gov 2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Committee Seapower Subcommittee hearing: “The State of Nuclear Shipbuilding,” with testimony from Matthew Sermon, program manager at the Maritime Industrial Base; Rear Adm. Jonathan Rucker, program executive officer for attack submarines; Rear Adm. Casey Moton, program executive officer for aircraft carriers; and Rear Adm. Todd Weeks, program executive officer for strategic submarines http://www.armed-services.senate.gov WEDNESDAY | APRIL 9 2:30 p.m. — Senate Armed Services Committee Personnel Subcommittee hearing: “Department of Defense Personnel Policies and Programs in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2026 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Army Lt. Gen. Brian Eifler, deputy chief of staff for personnel; Vice Adm. Richard Cheeseman., chief of naval personnel; Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Michael Borgschulte, deputy commandant for manpower and reserve affairs; Air Force Lt. Gen. Caroline Miller, deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and services; and Katharine Kelley, Space Force deputy chief of space operations for human capital http://www.armed-services.senate.gov 3:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee Strategic Forces Subcommittee hearing: “FY26 Strategic Forces Posture Hearing.” http://www.armedservices.house.gov THURSDAY | APRIL 10 Brussels, Belgium — The United Kingdom and France host a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing in defence ministers format at NATO headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_234102.htm 9:30 a.m. G-50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing: “The Posture of United States Indo-Pacific Command and United States Forces Korea in Review of the Defense Authorization Request for FY2026 and the Future Years Defense Program,” with testimony from Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; and Army Gen. Xavier Brunson, commander, UN Command/Combined Forces Command/U.S. Forces Korea http://www.armed-services.senate.gov 10 a.m. 2318 Rayburn — House Science, Space, and Technology Research and Technology Subcommittee hearing: “DeepSeek: A Deep Dive.” http://science.house.gov FRIDAY | APRIL 11 Brussels, Belgium — The United Kingdom and Germany convene the Ukraine Defence Contact Group at NATO headquarters https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news TUESDAY | APRIL 226:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army "Coffee Series" discussion with Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James Mingushttps://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/gen-mingus | | | | "I only can describe it as an attack on Danish the sovereignty of the kingdom of Denmark. And I made that very, very clear." | | Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, after meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Brussels to register his "very strong" objections to President Trump's repeated statements about acquiring Greenland from Denmak |
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Megyn Kelly -> Pete Hegseth responds to 2017 rape accusation. 🔥 vol. 3, issue 13 | December 6, 2024 Quick Hits All the news you need in...
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